The global supply chain has played an increasingly important role in the international division of labor since the current structure was formed in the 1990s. Recently，the supply chain has been hit hard by the unprecedented outbreak of the novel coronavirus，which has had an impact that far exceeds that of the 2008 global financial crisis. After the pandemic is finally brought under control，the global supply chain will exhibit some new characteristics. This is what we can expect and what it means for China.

Long Recovery Phase

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global supply chain is huge. In terms of the international economy and world trade，global GDP will decline by 3% in 2020，much worse than the drop during the 2008 global financial crisis，according to the World Economic Outlook report，issued in   April by the International Monetary Fund. This will be the worst global performance since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The World Trade Organization estimates there will be a decline in the global trade in goods ranging from 13% to 32% in 2020，surpassing the setback during the 2008 international financial crisis and comparable to that of the Great Depression. Transport has also been greatly affected. Moreover，it will take years for the global supply chain to recover from this kind of disruption. For example，although the supply chain rebounded quickly in 2010 after the severe jolt in 2009，it still has not fully returned to the pre-2008 levels. As we can see from the gradual pace of recovery after the financial crisis，it is reasonable to assume it could take a decade for the supply chain to recover fully from the pain inflicted by the novel coronavirus. Many enterprises have shut their doors permanently，and there will be a further shakeout within various industries.

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