Globalization Will Endure
Globalization is facing an assault from multiple directions but it is a trend that is unlikely to be reversed. It will certainly undergo changes due to adjustments in national policy in a number of countries as well as improvements in global governance and the development of regional integration. Nonetheless,it will remain with us over the long haul.
Since the early 1990s,the globalization process has been moving forward despite considerable opposition. Brexit and the "America First" policies of the Trump administration have presented major challenges to globalization and the Covid-19 pandemic,which has sent shock waves through the global supply chain,has amplified the voices of those calling for a change of course. But the odds are that globalization will see no fundamental reversal and a more rational,balanced and moderate globalization should be the norm in the future.
As a way to share resources,globalization is driven by economic complementarity and economic benefit. It requires convenient communication and interaction supported by technological development,ensuring that benefits outweigh costs. It allocates potential benefits based on the relative advantages of each participating country and reflects the willingness of the participants to make these interactions. Finally,it is shaped by international relations and politics.
Globalization is generally measured by indices that include international trade and investment,migration,communication,knowledge exchanges and dissemination,and changes in rules and institutions. Studies have shown that economic growth amid globalization comes from trade expansion,while the benefits of trade expansion depend not only on openness and income levels,but also on infrastructure. Countries with weak or unfair institutions or an unstable political environment will suffer economic shocks. Globalization might bring along shocks to domestic markets in the short term but will have a positive effect in the long run. Meanwhile social and institutional globalization will have a slightly negative impact on economic growth.