The Renminbi Exchange Rate – Reducing Risk Amid Heightened Volatility

来源: CHINAFOREX 2018 Issue 4 作者:staff reporter Wang
The renminbi's exchange rate has been subjected to new market factors.

The renminbi's exchange rate has been subjected to new market factors such as the ongoing Sino-US trade friction and differences between monetary policy in China and the US. These factors have contributed to heightened levels of volatility. These developments have attracted the attention of market players this year. To assess these new market factors and determine how Chinese companies can reduce foreign exchange riskChina Forex spoke with Li Liuyangchief foreign exchange analyst of the financial market department at China Merchants Bank. Mr Li contends that although the renminbi exchange rate has experienced more volatility on increased trading this yearthe overall trend has been steady and positive. Following are excerpts from that interview.

China Forex: Sino-US trade friction and changes in monetary policy have increased market attention on the renminbi exchange rate. What is your view of the trading environment? What new features do you see in the market?

Li Liuyang: Generally speakingthe renminbi exchange rate has displayed three new features. Firstit has become more difficult to predict the renminbi exchange rate due to two-way fluctuations. The exchange rate has become more sensitive to domestic and global factors alike. Since the second half of 2016the US dollar has shown a roller coaster pattern of appreciation followed by depreciation and then appreciation once more. Correspondinglywith the new parity calculation  mechanismthe renminbi exchange rate has basically followed the fluctuations in a basket of currenciesshowing a trend of depreciation followed by appreciation and then depreciation again against the US dollar.

In the second half of this yearrising Sino-US trade friction became an important factor affecting the renminbi exchange rate. After the US unveiled its findings from an investigation of China's policies and practices related to technology transfersintellectual property and innovation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974each development in the trade environment has had an impact on the renminbi exchange rate. In additionthis year's macroeconomic situationchanges in monetary policy in both countriescurrency woes in emerging marketsEuropean political turmoil have all had some effect on the foreign exchange market. The renminbi exchange rate is becoming more and more market-orientedand thus susceptible to short-term swings.

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