China's foreign trade had a better-than-expected performance in October. Exports grew 15.6% year on year in dollar terms，exceeding the strong September growth tally of 14.5%. Imports rose 21.4%，up from 14.3% in September. China's exports to the US defied the escalating Sino-US trade dispute，climbing 13.3% year-on-year. The US result in October topped the performance for exports to the European Union and Japan，which rose 12% and 8.5%，respectively. It also exceeded the 11.2% increase for overall exports in the same month last year.

Yet the prospects are not so encouraging if we look at forward-looking indicators. The figure for new export orders，a sub-index of the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)，was just 46.9 in October. It was the fourth month in a row since July in which the index was below the 50 threshold which separates contraction from expansion. Another pessimistic sign was the decreased cumulative export turnover at the 124th Canton Trade Fair. The big fair concluded with nearly US$30 billion in export orders，down 1% from the autumn fair last year. Orders from the US saw an especially large decline，with the volume of transactions falling by 30% from a year earlier to only $2.79 billion. These signs indicate future trade risks that cannot be underestimated.

To determine the extent of trade risks from the US tariffs，we examined three groups of Chinese products exported to the US. These were those included in the first batch of punitive tariffs or the group of "US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods" as well as those in the group of "US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods"  and those goods not included in the tariffs.

For goods included in the first round of tariffs or the "US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods" announced on April 3，2018，China's exports to the US have dropped sharply. The downward trend is especially obvious for goods under Chapter 86 and Chapter 88 in the International Convention for Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS). HS86 includes railway or tramway locomotives，railway or tramway track fixtures and fittings and parts thereof，and mechanical (including electro-mechanical) traffic signaling.