The US-China trade dispute has escalated since mid-June，with the two countries ratcheting up their import tariffs. The US announced the first round of tariff hikes on June 15，imposing a 25% duty on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods. A day later，China responded with countermeasures of equal scale. Threatened tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports went into effect on July 6，and the remaining US$16 billion was implemented on August 23. The US imposed another tariff of 10% on $200 billion worth of imported Chinese goods，a move that was followed by China's imposition of tariffs ranging from 5%-25%  on $60 billion of imports from the US.

Plans by both sides to impose more punitive tariffs have been put on hold but there is no resolution to the underlying problems.

What effects can we see from the trade dispute? Chinese and US trade statistics for the first eight months of the year can provide some clues.

If we look at the trade balance，China sustained less damage than the US. According to Chinese data，China had an overall trade surplus of US$169.7 billion over the January-August period this year，down 26.4% from the same months last year. During the same eight-month period this year it had a US$193.1 billion surplus with the US，up 13.8% from a year earlier. The increase was especially obvious since the official outbreak of the dispute in mid-June. China's trade surplus with the US maintained double digit growth year on year over the June-August period，expanding 13.9% in June，11.3% in July，and 18.7% in August year on year. The monthly surplus was US$28.9 billion in June，US$28.1 billion in July and US$31.1 billion in August. These were the highest levels for the year at that point (see Chart 1)，with August setting a new record.