The US has risked setting off a trade war with China by threatening to impose import tariffs on a wide range of goods. China announced its own counter threats before a temporary truce was reached. But then the US responded with a new threat of tariffs and that could upset a fragile peace. Meanwhile，the US has picked fights with the European Union，Japan，Canada and Mexico，demonstrating a decisive shift in America's global trade policy. It shows new concerns in Washington about free trade. The new theme is "fair trade," and at heart this is a rejection of globalization. After Donald Trump assumed the presidency，he quickly ordered a withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership，a trade accord that was painstakingly hammered out after years of negotiation. President Trump has embraced bilateral negotiations in place of multilateral talks and he has threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement despite America's long-term special relationship with Canada and Mexico. These all underscore this policy shift.

Trade disputes between China and the US will only intensify. This is not just economics and trade but has much to do with politics. We need to remain alert to this and develop a long-term strategy to minimize the negative impact of what looks like an unavoidable trade war.

In order to discuss the roots and implications of the US trade policy change，two basic facts should be recognized.

For one，the declining numbers of US manufacturing jobs have only a tenuous link to the trade deficit.