Exchange Rate Choices and China's Managed Float

来源: CHINAFOREX 2018 Issue 2
A market-based exchange rate is the general objective and exchange rate ...

In early 1994the renminbi's official exchange rate was merged with the exchange rate of the foreign exchange adjustment marketthereby establishing a single managed float system based on market supply and demand. China’s experience stands in contrast to a completely fixed exchange rate or a completely free-floating exchange rate. After reviewing the exchange rate reforms of the past two decades or soit is clear that a market-based exchange rate is the general objective and exchange rate policy is always about selecting the appropriate approach at the appropriate time.

There has long been much controversy over what constitutes the best exchange rate system and what policies should be applied. The general consensus is that there are advantages and disadvantages to both fixed and floating rate systems. No system fits all countries -- or even certain countries -- all of the time. For the governmenta managed floating exchange rate system means foregoing the benefits of the fixed exchange rate or the free-floating exchange rate. At the same timethe government has been criticized for the cost of maintaining an exchange rate under a managed float system.

Over the past two decadesChina has set various policies under the framework of a managed floatand there has been no shortage of controversy. During the Asian financial crisiswhen Asian currencies depreciated sharply and the renminbi faced strong downward pressurethe West unfairly accused China of setting the stage for the crisis with its first adjustment of the renminbi exchange rate in early 1994. In order to counter this argument while safeguarding domestic financial stability and shouldering some of the responsibility of a world economic powerChina chose to prevent the renminbi from depreciating. It held the currency stable at around 8.28 to one US dollar. This avoided further competitive devaluationsmaking an important contribution to financial stability in Asia and the rest of the world. Howevereventually an appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and other currencies increased difficulties for Chinese exporterswhich aggravated the nation's domestic deflationary trend. Obviouslyholding the renminbi steady was the correct policy choice but it came at a price.

After the August 112015 exchange rate reformwhich effectively devalued the renminbiChina once again faced pressure from capital outflows. At that pointChina opted for a managed floating exchange rateallowing the renminbi to trade in accordance with market supply and demand but with a reference to a basket of currencies. To a certain extentthis eased pressure from an overvalued renminbi due to the past appreciation of the US dollar. It promoted a balanced and reasonable exchange rate for the renminbialthough it brought about certain challenges. As the US dollar continued to strengthen in the offshore marketthe renminbi’s exchange rate against the dollar continued to fall on the domestic market. This led to market panic and an acceleration of capital outflows. By the end of 2016the renminbi exchange rate had weakened beyond seven to the dollar and the nation’s foreign exchange reserves had slipped to only a shade more than US$3 trillion. That prompted heated policy debates over whether to maintain stability in the exchange rate or stabilize foreign reserves.

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