双语丨钟伟:经济新平台资产再配置

发布:2017-11-13 15:34 来源: 《中国外汇》2017年第18期 作者:钟伟

经济新平台资产再配置

Asset Allocation in a New Economic Environment

文/钟伟

By Zhong Wei

中国经济是否进入新周期,是近来各界热议的话题。在这一讨论的背后可以看到,2015年以来,全球及中国经济出现的一些显著变化。

There has been considerable debate in China as to whether the economy has turned the corner or entered a new cycle. As background to this debate,it is clear that there have been some significant changes in China and the rest of the global economy since 2015.

全球经济趋稳,但增长偏弱且创新不足。自2014年底美联储宣布退出量化宽松以来,全球经济逐渐趋稳,且原来越不被看好的经济体改善越明显。典型的例子是去年的俄罗斯及巴西,以及今年的欧元区及日本。这是因为,全球创新动能的整体不足导致了增长改善更多地呈现出均值回归的特点。中国经济自2010年三季度以来增长持续下行的态势也发生了改变,呈现出明显的整体趋稳、趋好迹象。

The global economy is certainly stabilizing but growth remains weak. In late 2014,as the global economy continued to find its footing,the Federal Reserve announced it would withdraw from its innovative policy of quantitative easing. Economies that were widely seen as being in particular trouble started to show significant improvement. These included Russia and Brazil last year as well as the eurozone and Japan this year. This is partly due to the fact that amid a lack of momentum in global innovation,growth has improved,largely due to what we could classify as statistical regression,or a return to more normal levels. In China,the economy had been showing a steady slowing since the third quarter of 2010,but that trend has changed,and there are clear signs of an overall economic improvement.

全球主要经济体陆续告别通缩,且通胀仍不是显著威胁。居民消费和大宗商品价格逐步趋稳,弱复苏和资源产品的宽松平衡,使得人们并不担心通胀卷土重来。中国也告别了比东亚危机时期还严峻的通缩,当下通胀形势温和。

As the world's major economies post better growth,they have left their deflation problems behind. Yet inflation is still not a significant threat. A stabilizing of retail spending and commodity prices coupled with a generally modest recovery of resource prices means that there is still no need to sound the alarm over a potential rebound of inflation. China has emerged from a prolonged period of deflation -- one that was actually worse than that after the Asian crisis in 1997-1998. And in China the pace of inflation is also moderate.

反危机的刺激措施整体在撤火。由于美、欧的经济增长和通胀水平均不及预期,美联储的加息缩表、欧央行的退出量宽进程都呈边走边看的态势。鉴于中国经济增长已从10%以上降至6%-7%的平台,物价也从3%降至1%-2%,货币供应速度显著放缓实属必然。中国不仅不再强调强刺激,而且对金融和地产等行业采取了严厉的调控措施。

Monetary authorities around the world are now withdrawing the innovative stimulus measures rolled out to counter the global crisis. Economic growth and inflation in the United States and Europe remain lower than expected,and the Federal Reserve is proceeding cautiously with its plans to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. The European Central Bank has been similarly careful in unwinding its policies of quantitative easing. Given that China's economic growth has dropped from above 10% to a range of 6% to 7%,and retail prices have slowed from 3% to 1% to 2%,a significant slowdown in money supply growth is inevitable. China is no longer stressing the need for strong economic stimulus,and it is making use of strict controls on the finance and real estate sectors.

经济的虚实协调日益重要,道阻且长。如何维持实体经济与虚拟经济(尤其是资产价格)之间的良性关系和协调发展,是摆在各主要经济体面前的问题,而中国所倡导的“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”的新发展理念正渐渐深入人心。

The path to greater coordination between the real or underlying economy and the financial sector is a growing challenge. This is especially true in the area of asset prices in the major economies. China may have some ideas these key economies could borrow,notably Beijing's new development concept featuring "innovation,coordination,greenness,openness and sharing." This concept is already gaining traction.

综上,说新周期也罢,朱格拉周期也罢,包括中国在内的世界经济,在次贷危机十年后,毫无疑问将走向新平台,展现新气息。基于这样的宏观经济背景,我们才能进而讨论如何调整资产配置战略。

Whether we are seeing a new cycle or just a drawn out Juglar cycle (named after the French economist Clement Juglar),China and other economies are already on a new level as compared with the days around the time of the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago. With this kind of macroeconomic foundation as a starting point,we can discuss how to adjust asset allocations.

中国权益资产是价值洼地,投资宜把握三大主线,耐心是关键。与估值较高的美、欧、日股市相比,自次贷危机以来中国股市并无显著上升,目前估值处于25分位的稳健水平,所处的经济周期和权益估值,甚至市场情绪都很类似于2004年。许多人尚在追问改革在哪里?其实,改革在于发展理念的巨变,也在于经济刺激从放到收;改革在于供给侧改革使得实体经济得以提质增效,也在于央企已悄然缩减到98家;改革更在于创新付出了代价也收获到一些果实。当然,改革尚在路上,对于中国A股,要有更多的耐心和信心。

China’s equity assets are a value pool and we should be patient about the payoff. China's stock market has not shown significant improvement since the subprime mortgage crisis. The stock markets of the United States,Europe and Japan all have higher valuations. The situation in China at the moment,in terms of where we are in the economic cycle,the level of equity values and market sentiment,is very similar to that of 2004. Many people are still asking where the domestic reform program has gone. In fact,the reform program is actually demonstrating a change in its very concept. We are shifting from the encouragement of economic stimulus to the discouragement of stimulus. Reforms now refer to supply-side structural changes that will improve the efficiency of the real economy. These include reducing the number of enterprises under the central government to 98. To be sure,reforms are under way. But this kind of innovation carries an economic price. Results may not be apparent at first. For the Chinese A share market,there is a need for greater patience mixed with confidence in eventual success.

如果说权益类资产值得超配,投资主题则可指向国企混改、消费升级和创新成长。其中,最应寄予厚望的是国企改革。混改标的在边际上显著改善是大概率事件,而创新成长则更像沙里淘金。以资源类为代表的周期股、受调控约束的金融股和地产股,很可能会继续有不错的表现。行业洗牌中,龙头企业是不二之选。

If equity assets deserve greater attention in the allocation of our investments,our focus might be turned to those areas that are affected by the reform of state-owned enterprises,the upgrading of consumer tastes and innovative growth. The most promising area might be in reforming state-owned enterprises. There is a bigger probability of achieving success in such reforms than in innovative growth,where the failure rate could be relatively high. In the meantime,we could also see strong growth in cyclical stocks such as resources,financials and property while railroad stocks could also be big beneficiaries of rotational investment.

流动性依然很重要,尤其是人民币现金。债市方面,随着实体经济的温和改善,以及央行推动流动性常态化的明朗化,信用债和含权债的前景可能比单纯的利率债更好。因此,保持流动性的充裕十分重要。就人民币流动性而言,信托优先级和非保本银行理财可能是稳健之选。

Liquidity is critical to investment allocation. For that reason,traditional corporate bonds and convertible bonds may be better than debt that carries deferred interest. As the real economy gradually improves,the central bank will be promoting more transparent and reliable liquidity levels. And in terms of liquid renminbi assets,trust investments without a guaranteed principal may be better options.

同时,人民币和美元相比可能更好,利率和汇率大势均如此。尽管人民币仍然比欧元等要弱,但其估值修复或更为坚实。如无危机事件的冲击,稳健的人民币准现金资产表现可能不弱于黄金,甚至好于利率债。

Renminbi and US dollar investments may be better choices than other currencies if we consider interest rates and exchange rates. Although the renminbi remains weaker than the euro,it has been on a somewhat firmer track. If we do not encounter any new crises,renminbi quasi-cash assets may be better than gold and will no doubt be better than deferred interest debt.

地产暴涨论可以休矣。次贷危机后,中国楼市经历了剧烈调整后的凶猛上涨;但时至今日,房地产行业已在洗牌,区域市场已在分化,行业集中度缓慢提高。当前,除了中心城市和少量的都市圈周边小城市,房价暴涨已是水中月。不过,这也给大都市的富裕阶层带来了住房“以旧换新”的窗口期。至少在年内,地产的龙头股表现应还不错。

As for real estate,the boom might be over. After the subprime mortgage crisis,the Chinese property market experienced a sharp increase. But as of today,the real estate sector has undergone a major adjustment. Regional markets have shown sharp divergences,with some markets performing well and others still sluggish. At present,skyrocketing prices are evident in key cities and in core areas of a few smaller cities. This has also been favorable to those wealthy enough to have an apartment in a metropolitan area. They still have an opportunity to trade up. There has also been a further concentration of the market,with bigger firms gaining ground. At least through the year-end,the leading property shares will have a strong performance.

中国经济进入新平台,决定了我们看待已进行的增长转型以及可期待的经济愿景时,可以更为乐观,而不是怀疑和悲观。在如此的认知下,在资产战略配置层面,宜以权益类优先,准现金也有必要,一线城市地产的价格亦有上涨余地。国企混改、消费升级和创新成长则是未来可期待的投资主要脉络。

China's economy has reached a new level and that makes us more optimistic when we look at the transformation of growth that is under way. As far as asset allocations are concerned in this environment,it is preferable to stick with equity and quasi-cash,while there is also some room for growth in prices of real estate in first-tier cities. The reforms of state-owned enterprises,consumer product upgrading and innovation growth are good guidelines for future investment.

作者系本刊副主编、北京师范大学金融系教授

The author is associate editor of China Forex and associate professor at the department of finance at Beijing Normal University.

更多