人民币入篮一周年:成就、挑战和发展

发布:2017-11-17 15:08 来源: 《中国外汇》2017年第21期 作者:王国刚

20151130日,在国际货币基金组织(IMF188个成员高度认可下,IMF决定将人民币纳入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子(以下简称“人民币入篮”),并于2016101日实施。如今,人民币入篮已经一周年。一年来,尽管国际形势云谲波诡、动荡不安,但人民币经受住了考验,不仅有效地推进了人民币国际化进程和中国的对外开放进程,国际声誉大为提高,而且有效支持了国内的供给侧结构性改革和金融改革,为“一带一路”倡议的落实创造了有利的货币金融条件。但也要看到,人民币入篮并非一劳永逸之事。根据IMF的规定,每隔5年将对SDR货币篮子进行新一轮的评估,已进入SDR货币篮子的主权货币如果达不到规定的条件,就有可能“出篮”。因此,人民币在“篮”中的地位依然有待进一步加强和稳固。这既取决于国际社会各种因素的变化,也取决于中国经济社会的繁荣发展和改革开放的深化。

Two years agothe International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to include the renminbi in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. This important decisionreached with the backing of 188 other members of the fundwent into effect on October 12016. It now has been more than a year since the Chinese currency was formally added to the basket of reserve currenciesand over that perioddespite the turbulence of international marketsthe renminbi has withstood the test. This has effectively promoted the internationalization of the renminbiaccelerated China’s opening to the rest of the world and given a major boost to China's international reputation.

At the same timeit has supported domestic financial and supply-side structural reformswhile paving the way for the nation's “Belt and Road" initiativean ambitious program that seeks to boost infrastructure development and trade between Asia and Europe. This program could also result in a big role for the Chinese currency in financing and trade. It should be kept in mind that including the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies requires continuing efforts. According to the provisions of the IMFthe SDR currency basket must undergo a fresh round of assessments every five yearsand currencies that fail to meet the IMF requirements can be removed from the basket. Thereforefurther efforts will be required to ensure that the renminbi remains an SDR component. This will depend on changes in the international situation and the prosperity and development of China’s economyincluding the progress in deepening the nation's reforms and opening the economy.

人民币入篮一周年的丰富成果

主权货币是任何一个国家经济社会体系中不可或缺的一个实质性构成部分。人民币入篮,标志着中国主权货币得到全球各国和地区的公正认同。20151130IMF决定将人民币入篮后,中国主权货币在国际经济中的地位、话语权和影响力得到快速提升。

The First Year’s Achievements

A sovereign currency is an indispensable part of any country’s economic and social system. Including the renminbi in this international basket of reserve currencies signals the recognition of China's sovereign currency by the international community. It has enhanced China's standing in the worldamplified the authority of its voice and expanded the influence of its actions.

第一,人民币在国际货币体系中的地位明显上升。从跨境人民币收付业务看,2016年,跨境人民币收付金额合计9.85万亿元,占同期本外币跨境收付金额的比重为25.2%,连续六年成为中国第二大跨境收付货币。其中,经常项目人民币收款2.15万亿元,付款3.08万亿元,净支出9273.7亿元,收付比为11.432017年前9个月,中国进出口总额达到20.29万亿元,同比增长16.6%,且人民币的收付金额进一步扩大。另一方面,2016年“资本项目”中,人民币收款1.63万亿元,付款2.98万亿元,净支出1.35万亿元,收付比为11.83(参见中国人民银行《2017年中国人民币国际化报告》)。2017106日,环球银行间金融电讯协会(Swift)公布的数据显示,以价值计算,人民币在全球支付体系中所占市场份额达到创纪录的2.79%,首次超过日元,跻身于全球第四大支付货币。从储备货币看, IMF公布的“官方外汇储备货币构成(COFER)”的数据显示,已有60多个国家和地区将人民币纳入外汇储备的币种范畴,人民币储备在201612月末达到845.1亿美元,占标明币种构成外汇储备总额的1.07%;截至2017年第二季度,人民币储备规模进一步达到993.6亿美元,较2016年年底又增了长9.5%。此外,截至2016年年底,中国人民银行已与36个国家和地区的中央银行或货币当局签署了双边本币互换协议,协议总金额超过3.3万亿元人民币。2017101日,IMF总裁拉加德强调指出,人民币将被国际社会认可,成为可自由使用的国际货币。

Firstthe renminbi has taken an increasingly important role in the international monetary system. In 2016cross-border renminbi receipts and payments amounted to 9.85 trillion yuanaccounting for 25.2% of China's domestic and foreign currency cross-border payments in that period. The renminbi has been China's second largest cross-border payment currency for six consecutive years. Current account renminbi receipts reached 2.15 trillion yuan and renminbi payments were 3.08 trillion yuanwhich means a net expenditure of 927.37 billion yuan. From January to September of 2017China’s total imports and exports reached 20.29 trillion yuan with a year-on-year increase of 16.6 %. The total of renminbi payments continued to expand.

On the capital account in 2016renminbi receipts reached 1.63 trillion yuan and payments were 2.98 trillion yuanwhich means a net expenditure of 1.35 trillion yuan. On October 62017the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) published data showing that the renminbi reached a record 2.79% of global payments in terms of valuesurpassing the yen for the first time and becoming the fourth largest payment currency in the world. In terms of reserve currenciesthe IMF’s Official Foreign Exchange Reserve Currency Composition data show that more than 60 countries and regions have included the renminbi in their foreign currency reserves. At the end of December 2016renminbi reserves reached the equivalent of US$84.51 billionaccounting for 1.07% of total foreign exchange reserves. By the second quarter of 2017the renminbi reserves reached the equivalent of US$ 99.36 billionup 9.5% from the end of 2016. In additionby the end of 2016the People’s Bank of China had signed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the central bank or monetary authorities of 36 countries and regions. The total amount of the agreements reached at more than 3.3 trillion yuan. Speaking on October 12017IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde stressed that the status of the Chinese currency will be acknowledged by the international community and it will become a freely traded international currency.

第二,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。2015年以后,随着美联储实施退出量化宽松政策,联邦基金利率进入加息通道,人民币兑美元的汇率呈现走低的趋势;但与欧元、英镑、日元等相比,人民币兑美元的汇价走低程度依然是最小的,显示了人民币依然是国际金融中可选择的坚挺货币。2016年以后,在中国经济强劲增长和中国人民银行采取必要措施稳定汇价的情况下,人民币兑美元汇率持续走高。根据中国货币网的数据,自201713日以来,人民币对兑美元的中间价升幅约为5.05%。在这个过程中,中国人民银行积极推进人民币汇率形成机制的改革,继2015811日推出人民币汇率中间价报价机制以后,2017526日,又推出了人民币汇率中间价报价模型的“逆周期因子”,进一步稳定了汇市交易各方对人民币汇率的预期。Moreoverthe renminbi exchange rate remained basically stable over the period after it joined the basket of reserve currencies. Since 2015with the US Federal Reserve signaling that it would withdraw its quantitative easing policy and gradually increase the federal funds ratethe renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar has shown a downward trend. Howevercompared with the euroBritish pound or the yenthe renminbi exchange rate against the US currency has declined by the smallest amountindicating that the renminbi is the optimal choice of international currencies. Since 2016the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar has continued to rise along with China's strong economic growth and with the efforts of the People’s Bank of China to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data of www.chinamoney.comsince January 32017the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has risen by about 5.05%. In this processthe People’s Bank of China actively promoted the reform of the renminbi's exchange rate mechanism. Following the launch of the reform of the renminbi's central parity mechanism on August 112015authorities added the use of a counter cyclical factor in setting the parity rate as of May 262017. This further stabilized market expectations.

外汇储备是人民币国际化的货币基础。中国外汇储备在2014年年底为38430.18亿美元,到2015年年底,下降为33303.62亿美元。这在一定程度上加速了2015年人民币兑美元汇率的下行。2016年以后,中国外汇局采取了一系列措施进一步规范外汇进出境管理,抑制了外汇储备资产大幅减少的态势。到20179月,外汇储备资产从2016年年底的30105.17亿美元回升到31085.1亿美元,提振了海外投资者和其他非居民持有人民币的信心,促进了人民币兑美元汇率的回升。Foreign exchange reserves are the monetary basis of the internationalization of the renminbi. As of the end of 2014China’s foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$3,843.018 billionbut they declined to US$3,330.362 billion at the end of 2015. To some extent that accelerated the weakening of the yuan against the US dollar in 2015. Since 2016the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has adopted a series of measures to tighten foreign exchange managementthereby halting the sharp decline of foreign exchange reserves. As of September 2017foreign exchange reserve assets had risen from US$3,010.517 billion at the end of 2016 to US$3,108.51 billionboosting the confidence of overseas investors and other nonresidents in holding renminbi. That in turn helped improve the exchange rate of the Chinese currency against the dollar.

第三,中国资本市场走向国际化。中国人民银行《2017年中国人民币国际化报告》披露,到2016年年底,有407家境外机构获准进入中国境内银行间债券市场,债券托管余额为8000.3亿元。按照国际清算银行(BIS)狭义统计口径,以人民币标价的国际债券余额达到6987.2亿元。其中,境外机构在离岸市场上发行的未清偿人民币债券余额达到5665.8亿元,在中国境内发行的人民币债券余额为1321.4亿元。非居民持有境内人民币金融资产余额达到3.03万亿元。其中:境外机构持有的股票市值和债券托管余额分别为6491.9亿元和8526.2亿元,境外机构对境内机构的贷款余额达到6164.4亿元,非居民在境内银行的人民币存款余额达到9154.7亿元。另一方面,在人民币入篮因素的推动下,2016125日,“深港通”正式开通;2017621日,全球权威指数编制公司(MSCI)宣布,将把中国A股正式纳入MSCI新兴市场指数以及全球指数;201773日,香港与内地债券市场互联互通合作正式启动。这一系列资本市场对外开放的举措,丰富了中国资本市场互联互通机制的深度开放,也为全球投资者进入中国资本市场提供了新的交易平台。根据中央国债登记结算公司与上海清算所最新发布的托管数据,20178月,境外机构增持了825.67亿元人民币债券,增持幅度再创历史新高。MeanwhileChina’s capital market has been undergoing a process of internationalization. According to the People’s Bank of China’s 2017 China International Renminbi Report407 foreign institutions had been authorized to take part in the domestic inter-bank bond market and had a bond custody balance of 800.03 billion yuan as of the end of 2016. According to the narrower statistics of the Bank for International Settlementsthe balance of international debt denominated in renminbi amounted to 698.72 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding renminbi bonds issued by overseas institutions in the offshore market reached 566.58 billion yuan and the balance of renminbi bonds issued in mainland China was 132.14 billion yuan.

The balance of financial assets held by non-residents in China reached 3.03 trillion yuan. That figure included a balance of 616.44 billion yuan in stocks and 852.62 billion yuan of bonds held in custody by overseas institutions. The balance of loans of domestic institutions borrowed from foreign institutions reached 616.44 billion yuanand the balance of non-resident deposits at domestic banks reached 915.47 billion yuan. Additionallythe Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connecta program that links trading on the stock exchanges of the two citieswas officially launched on June 52016. On June 212017Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced that China’s A Shares were officially included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the global index. On July 32017Hong Kong and mainland China officially launched their bond market cooperation program. This series of initiatives deepened the opening up of China's capital marketproviding a new trading platform for global investors to enter the Chinese market. According to the custody data of the China Central Depository & Clearing Co.Ltd. and the Shanghai Clearing Housein August 2017foreign institutions increased their holdings of bonds by 82.567 billion yuana record high.

第四,人民币跨境使用的基础设施建设加速。2016年,中国人民银行加大了推动人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)的建设力度:截至2016年年底,该系统的直接参与者达到28家、间接参与者达到512家,覆盖了全球80个国家和地区;累计处理支付业务722849笔,金额达到48427亿元。另一方面,中国人民银行加快了境外人民币业务清算机制的建设,先后与美联储、俄央行等23个国家和地区的央行建立了人民币清算安排,以保障在这些国家和地区的企业和金融机构能使用人民币进行跨境交易,有效推进了贸易投资的便利化。

Additionallythe construction of infrastructure for the cross-border use of renminbi has been accelerated. In 2016the People’s Bank of China intensified the effort to promote cross-border renminbi payments. At the end of 2016the number of direct participants in the system reached 28 institutions with 512 participantscovering 80 countries around the world. The cumulative processing and payment business reached 722,849 cases with a value of 4,842.7 billion yuan. On the other handthe People’s Bank of China has accelerated the construction of the liquidation mechanism of overseas renminbi businessand established renminbi clearing arrangements with the central banks of 23 countries and regions. These included the US Federal Reserve and the Russian central bank and were designed to ensure that enterprises and financial institutions in these countries and regions could deal with cross-border renminbi transactionseffectively promoting trade and investment.

总之,入篮一周年来,人民币在国际金融中的功能效力已初露头角,不仅在促进中国贸易投资方面的积极效能有所展现,而且在促进国际货币体系改革、推动国际经济发展中的效力也开始显示。

In shortduring the first year of the renminbi's inclusion in the basket of reserve currenciesthere has been a positive performance of China’s trade and investmentfurther reform of the international monetary system and the promotion of the more effective international economic development.

人民币驻篮面临的挑战

俗话说:打江山难坐江山更难。尽管人民币已经入篮且一年来表现不俗,但国际社会风云变化,人民币要在SDR中坐稳(即“驻篮”)且表现得更为出色,既有赖于国际经济运行的复苏和发展,也有赖于中国国内经济社会的发展。而在这些方面,人民币驻篮都面临着严峻挑战。

Challenges Facing the Renminbi

It is often said that it is more difficult to maintain achievements than to earn them. Despite the fact that the renminbi's performance as a reserve currency has been exemplarythere is a need for more effort. This depends on the recovery and development of the international economy as well as China’s domestic economic and social development. The series of challenges facing the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies are as follows.

一是动荡不安的国际社会,使人民币驻篮的外部环境复杂多变。首先,特朗普当选为美国新一任总统以后推出的一系列非常态的政策,令国际社会一片哗然。在“美国优先”理念的支配下,美国不仅退出了全球应对气候变化行动的“巴黎协定”,叫停了跨太平洋合作伙伴协定(TPP)的谈判,而且高举贸易保护主义旗帜,以所谓的“不公平的进口”为口实、以结束“不公平的贸易行为”为标的,与诸多主要国家和地区展开了一系列的贸易投资协定重新谈判。这预示着,未来几年各国和地区间的国际贸易走势将具有更多的不确定性。其次,20173月以后,英国脱欧的程序进入实质性操作阶段,但迄今欧盟与英国在脱欧条件上的谈判仍处于僵局,前景尚不明朗。英国脱欧,不仅会将对欧盟和欧元区的经济金融产生严重的负面影响,而且会使国际经济金融面临难以预料的动荡局面。再次,美欧等国迄今不承认中国的市场经济地位,贸易保护不断延伸,试图以此遏制中国的贸易增长。这给中国的对外贸易带来了新的不确定影响。最后,诸如苏格兰脱英、加泰罗尼亚公投脱离西班牙,伦巴第和威尼托两地区公投脱离意大利等,也都在发酵,给欧洲经济社会发展带了更多的变数。此外,国际金融的变化中也隐含着一系列不确定的变数。2017615日,美联储进行了2017年的第2次加息,加息25个基点至1%1.25%;与此同时,美联储还加快了资产负债表的“缩表”进度,回笼已投放在外的美元。这些措施意味着,美国退出量化宽松的步伐在加快,美元将随着这些政策的实施而升值。这不仅会进一步导致各种国际货币的贬值和国际经济金融交易中的美元吃紧,而且将导致国际市场中的大宗商品价格波动,给各国和地区的经济发展带来进一步的不确定影响。

The turbulent external environment makes the renminbi's role in the basket complex. First of allthe newly elected president of the USDonald Trumpintroduced a series of disruptive policieswhich unsettled the international community. Under President Trump's America First policythe US has withdrawn from the Paris Accord on global climate changeand abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement that had been ready to link 12 economies. But the US turned away from its open market policies and instead embraced protectionismusing the pretext of addressing unfair imports. It launched a series of initiatives to renegotiate trade and investment agreements with many of its trading partnerssuch as Mexico and Canada. This suggests that the international trade environment will experience more uncertainty over the next few years.

MeanwhileBrexit procedures have reached a crucial phase. So far the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom on Brexit terms are deadlocked. Brexit will have a serious impact on the economy and finances of the EU and the eurozoneand this adds even more uncertainty to the global economy. Moreoverthe USEurope and other key economies still refuse to recognize China’s market economy status. Trade friction and protectionism continue unabated. Meanwhilethere are continuing efforts to curb China’s trade growthand this has brought new uncertainties to China’s foreign trade picture. FinallyScotland's continuing flirtation with independence from Britain and the Catalonia referendum on independence from Spain are symptoms of political tensions that threaten to unravel existing national and international arrangements. The regions of Lombardy and Venetowhich include Milan and Venicehave voted for more autonomyand this too could create even more uncertainty in the European Union.

On the monetary policy frontthere are fresh areas of uncertainty as well. In Junethe Federal Reserve made its second rate hike of 2017announcing another 25-basis-point rise in the federal funds rate to 1.25%. At the same timethe Federal Reserve also moved closer to actually shrinking its balance sheetwhile the Trump administration has considered incentives to encourage American corporations to repatriate funds parked outside the country. This tax treatment is by no means assured but if this is coupled with higher interest ratesthe dollar should appreciate. That would put downward pressure on other global currenciesand could also lead to fluctuations in commodity prices in the international market. That in turn could bring further uncertainties to the global economy.

第二,中国经济正处于供给侧结构性改革的攻坚阶段。从“去杠杆”看,实体企业(尤其是国有企业)的资产负债率居高不下,不仅严重制约了“去产能、去库存”的深化和公司并购、资产重组的有效展开,而且给守住不发生系统性金融风险底线带来隐患。但要切实“去杠杆”,一方面补充资本性资金的缺口巨大;另一方面,还可能给就业、产值、市场乃至经济增长带来新的不确定性。对此,既需要政策面的统筹协调安排,也需要有足够的消化和操作时间。从“降成本”看,2015年以来的减税减费和降息等举措的成效正在显现;同时,PPI增长率自20169月以后开始上行,也给实体企业带来了盈利水平回升的市场环境。这些有利条件给“降成本”提供了良好的时间窗口。但要进一步降低实体企业的融资成本和经营运作成本,则还有待相关政策的切实落地、体制机制改革的进一步深化和市场交投的活跃。从“补短板”看,大众创新、万众创业和新兴产业的发展,使得经济结构中的短板产业规模得到加快扩展,基础设施建设的推进,也为短板产业的发展提供了良好的外部条件,但国民经济中的短板产业和短板区域依然缺乏足够的投资,发展不平衡、不充分的现象依然严重。特别是组织机制的短板和体制机制的短板等,还需要通过进一步深化改革来打通“最后一公里”。总之,经济发展的动能转换到位仍有待时日。Moreoverthe Chinese economy is in a crucial phase of supply-side structural reform. Deleveragingor the reduction of high debt-to-asset ratios of domestic enterprises (especially state-owned companies)could seriously delay progress in reducing excess production capacity and paring high levels of inventories. There is a need for more corporate mergers and acquisitions as well as asset reorganizations to strengthen some of the weaker corporate entities and avert systemic financial risk. Deleveraging will deprive many companies of needed fundsand this could affect outputemployment and economic growth. Thereforethis needs to be done in a gradual way. From the cost perspectivetax cuts and interest rate reductions will help companies.

Meanwhilethe producer price indexafter a prolonged period of negative growthhas picked up since September 2016allowing greater profitability for many upstream producers. These favorable conditions provide a healthier environment for cost reduction. Howeverto further reduce financing and operating costsmore structural supply-side reforms are needed. From the industries hit by overcapacityinnovationentrepreneurship and the development of emerging industries could lead to expansion. Accelerated infrastructure construction could help create the needed external conditions for the development of these struggling industries.

第三,防控系统性金融风险已放到更加突出的位置。2016年以后,国务院和相关金融监管部门先后出台了《关于印发互联网金融风险专项整治工作实施方案的通知》《关于积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率的意见》《关于开展银行业“不当创新、不当交易、不当激励、不当收费”专项治理工作的通知》和《关于银行业风险防控工作的指导意见》等一批规范性文件,对化解和防控系统性金融风险起到了积极、重要的作用。但冰冻三尺非一日之寒,化冰三尺也非一日之工。要有效修复实体企业和金融机构的资产负债表,在“资产-负债-资产”的联动机制下有效防范金融病毒的传染,需要将各种准金融机构和非金融机构的金融交易都纳入到金融监管视野,以实现金融监管的全覆盖。建立有效的系统性金融风险的预警机制和应急机制,不是一朝一夕之事;因此,在这个过程中,金融风险对中国金融运行和发展的影响还将在不同程度上发生。

In additionthe prevention of systemic financial risk has been given a more prominent position on the policy agenda. Since 2016the State Council and financial regulatory authorities have issued a number of key documents aimed at increasing risk control. These include the Notice on Implementation of Special Rectification on Internet Financial RiskOpinions on Actively and Steadily Reducing the Leverage Rate for EnterprisesSpecial Rectification on Inappropriate InnovationInappropriate TransactionsInappropriate Incentives and Inappropriate Charges  and  Guidance on Prevention and Control of Banking Risks. These problems accumulate over time and it takes more time to solve them. It will also take time to effectively repair the balance sheets of enterprises and financial institutions and establish effective measures against financial contagion. Moreoverefforts must be made to include coverage of quasi-financial institutions and non-financial institutions in the financial regulatory scopein order to achieve full financial supervision.

与此同时,国际经济金融的运行尚不稳定,发生突发性风险的可能性并没有减少:大宗商品价格波动、石油价格的莫测变幻、美联储缩表引致的国际金融动荡、相关国家或地区之间的贸易战、日本神户制钢丑闻的发酵等等,都可能通过这种或那种路径传递给中国,增加中国防控系统性金融风险的难度。此外,随着人民币国际地位的提高和国际功能的增强,美元、英镑和日元的国际影响力将受到对应的影响,由此,在国际间争夺话语权、交易权(包括计价权和清算权等)和储备权的货币战争,会通过各条路径以各种方式展开。这既会增加中国面对的国际金融风险,也将给人民币驻篮的稳定带来新的挑战。

At the same timethere are still uncertainties in the international economic and financial realm and there is a possibility of a sudden emergence of risks. Fluctuations in commodity pricesunpredictable oil pricespossible financial turmoil stemming from the shrinking of the Federal Reserve's balance sheettrade wars and the Kobe Steel production scandal in Japan could have an impact on China. This could increase the difficulty of controlling systemic financial risks in China. In additionwith the improvement of the international status and the enhancement of international functions of the renminbithe international influence of the dollarthe pound and the yen will be affected accordingly. Thusthe fight for a greater voice in the international arenathe right to trade (including pricing power) and the currency war for reserves will start in various forms. This will increase international financial risks facing China and bring new challenges to the stability of the renminbi in the reserve basket.

作者单位:中国人民大学财金学院、中国财政和金融政策研究中心

The author is from China Finance and Financial Policy Research Center of School of Finance at Renmin University of China.

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