【双语】汇率博弈

发布:2017-11-03 14:46 来源: 《CHINA FOREX》2017年第3期 作者:穆志谦

汇率,定义为不同货币之间的比价,人们往往关注的视点是汇率博弈。但纵深研究就发现,博弈的结构有着丰富的内容。视角不同,博弈推导出的结果也不同。

An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another. How it is determined is the exchange rate game, and there are numerous aspects to this contest of chance, willpower and economic clout. Different factors produce different outcomes. Different vantage points produce different conclusions.

以人民币为例,谁与谁博弈?

If we take the renminbi, for example, what does the game consist of and who are the key players?

人民币升值与贬值之间的博弈。对资产存量而言,升值有利于债权人,贬值则债务人受益,反之亦然。对国际贸易而言,升值扶植出口,贬值抑制进口,反之亦然。从国际收支平衡角度,从经济运行平稳出发,则复杂得多,还不能简单判定人民币升值就好,或人民币贬值就一定不好。

Firstly, there is the contest over renminbi appreciation and depreciation. Appreciation favors creditors while depreciation favors borrowers. In international trade, appreciation boosts imports and curbs exports, while depreciation curbs imports and spurs exports. We should not make a simple value judgment about the value of the currency without considering a wide range of factors such as the effects on importers and exporters, the impact on the balance of payments and the effects on the economy overall.

人民币与美元之间的博弈。美中属于世界第一、二两大经济体,两种货币的比价,体现的是两国购买力水平的差异。有趣的是,中美两国经济周期不同步,呈现此消彼长或此长彼消的经济运行景气状况,从时间维度去评价,很难思维固化,哪种货币升贬值的利弊。

Secondly, there is the contest of the renminbi and the US dollar. The United States and China are the world’s largest and second largest economies, and the exchange rate between the two currencies is an indicator of purchasing power. Interestingly, the two economies have economic cycles that do not coincide, and domestic economic conditions are hardly the same. Judging the advantages and disadvantages of appreciation versus depreciation is a complex calculation.

离岸市场CNH与在岸市场CNY的博弈。两个市场反映不同区域范围的供求关系,受不同的监管主体管理,本来是有隔离墙的,但就同一种货币标的,虽然价格互为不因果,但总会互为影响。

Thirdly, there is a contest between the offshore market (where the renminbi is commonly known as CNH) and the onshore market (where it is called CNY). The two markets are under different supervisory authorities and reflect a different supply and demand dynamic but share the same exchange reference, namely the US dollar. Although prices on these two markets do not share a cause-and-effect relationship, they exert mutual influence on each other.

即期汇率与远期汇率的博弈。预期反映并发现价格。即期决定并是远期的基础,而远期引导即期的走向。两者的博弈考验投资主体的胆和识、魄力和智慧。

Lastly, there is a game of the spot and forward exchange rates. Market expectations help discover prices. While the spot rate is a determining factor and the basis for the forward exchange rate, the forward rate leads the spot rate trend. The game between the two is also a test of investors’ courage, insight and wisdom.

人民币汇率生成机制是由收盘价(前一日)、一篮子货币变化和逆周期因子三要素组合,既反映境内市场供求关系,又参考国际上多种货币波动,还进行预期管理。三者出发点各异,相互之间也存在博弈,博弈的是权重,是谁主导。

The renminbi exchange rate mechanism, which determines the daily parity rate or fix, combines three elements, namely the previous day's closing price, variations within a basket of currencies and counter-cyclical factors. The mechanism reflects the interaction of supply and demand, the fluctuations of foreign currencies as well as the management of expectations. The three elements all have a role, but the weighting of each can determine the outcome.

总之,博弈既有内生的,又有外生的,既有时间维度的,又有空间范围的,等等。中国有句古话,有人喜来有人忧,喜忧参半,因人而异。

The exchange rate game involves internal and external factors. It has dimensions of time and space, and no sweeping judgments can be applied to the outcome. As an old Chinese goes: some people laugh while others cry. The viewpoint depends on the individual.

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