【双语】中国金融的新“世界第一”

发布:2017-07-07 14:54 来源: 中国外汇网

导语:人民币国际化不具有前四大储备货币的崛起的历史条件,所以人民币国际化必须另辟蹊径,才能给“一带一路”的建设输血。目前从全球整体的新金融格局来看,中国对世界金融的最大贡献就是第三方支付。中国的科技金融已经是绝对的世界第一,中国的第三方支付使用量是美国的五十倍,且在知识产权领域,中国也在金融科技行业里排名前三。所以无论从技术含量还是市场经验来说,中国的金融科技尤其是第三方支付已经是不可争议的世界第一,因此可成为人民币国际化的重要起点。而且第三方支付和金融科技能够更好地推广全球性的普惠金融,不仅能大大降低反洗钱、反恐怖融资、反核扩散融资、反腐败,还可解决非传统性的金融风险等问题,是大势所趋。此外,这也是中国作为SDR第五大储备货币崛起的重要条件之一。

 

作者:陈捷,鲁雪岩,Przemyslaw Leszczynski

By Lu Xueyan, Chen Jie and Przemyslaw Leszczynski

作者单位:

Chen Jie is a researcher at Research Center on International Cooperation Regarding Persons Sought for Corruption and Asset Recovery in G20 Member States.

Lu Xueyan is researcher of People’s Bank of China.

Przemyslaw Leszczynski is from Beijing Foreign Studies University.

 

“一带一路”人民币国际化

The Belt and Road Renminbi

 

英镑的崛起依靠的是“日不落帝国”时代殖民地国家和地区的市场。政治军事殖民虽然结束,但是经济上依然具有绝对优势,英镑的广泛使用也是理所当然的。并且,即使在其他4大货币崛起后,英镑不仅能保持其强大的独立性,并没有归入欧元区,还利用美元和欧元之间的博弈,稳固了自己的生存空间。

The pound sterling's rise to a dominant global role was founded on Britain's era of colonial conquest -- when the crown had an empire on which the sun never set. The regionalization of markets gave the currency a further boost and to this day the pound still plays a major role in the global financial system. Even though colonial domination is long gone, the British economy continues to show plenty of punch. And while the pound now shares center stage with four other big currencies it has held its own between the euro and the dollar, solidifying its own “living space.”

 

美元的统治的历史环境更是得天独厚。两次世界大战,美国除了珍珠港遭受袭击意外,其本土达到了完好的保存与发展。战后的“马歇尔计划”和“布雷顿森林体系”在相当长的一段时间内确立了美元的霸主地位。靠着黄金美元和产能输出,控制了世界经济近30年。即便是后来的“牙买加体系”和三次石油危机,也没有撼动美元霸权的地位。而且石油美元的地位,从生产发展的角度看,比黄金美元更具有合理行。至于页岩气革命,还只是一个故事。

The ascendancy of the US dollar was partly a result of America's rich resources. The US is generously endowed by nature. Shielded by geography, it was spared much of the horror of World War II. With the exception of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the US was largely insulated from attacks on its soil. It emerged from the war as an economic powerhouse even as much of Europe was in ruins. The post-war Marshall Plan and the Bretton Woods System established the domination of the dollar in the following decades. Relying on backing from gold and US industrial muscle, the dollar managed to maintain its sway over the global economy. Repeated oil crises failed to shake the dollar's status. The rise of oil mean the rise of petrodollars, and that ultimately was viewed as more reasonable than a dollar based on gold.

欧元的诞生源于欧洲一体化的进程。虽然欧洲在二战之后被打的千疮百孔,在“马歇尔计划”和“布雷顿森林体系”时代受美元的控制,但是由于欧洲民族血统、文化、经济的趋同性,欧盟很快发展起来,并开始以德国马克和法国法郎挑战美元。在主动切段美元和黄金的联系后,欧元随着欧盟的发展应运而生。尤其是在民族血缘上,欧洲大陆的日尔曼民族和法兰西民族的文化渊源要超过美英加澳新五大盎格鲁撒克逊的影响,欧洲大陆使用德语和法语的地区要远远超过英语,基督教的影响也要大于新教。所以从二战中恢复元气的欧洲一分钟都不想受美国和美元的控制。因此,欧元的生命力是来自于民族、文化、经济、宗教等多方面的。虽然欧元也经历过美元和英镑的夹击,并在金融危机后收到严重影响,但目前实力犹存。

The birth of the euro originated from the extended process of European integration. After World War II, Europe was flat on its back, clearing the way for a dominant dollar. However, Europe gradually moved towards greater political and economic cooperation, eventually becoming the EU. This was hastened by European heritage, culture, shared values and economic interests. The dollar faced a challenge from the German mark and the French franc. Later, a bold effort to compete with the dollar and gold, the grand project of a single currency -- the euro -- ultimately took shape. In the end after recovery from World War II, Europe within a short time had changed its course - from accepting the US dollar as a world’s currency to the creation of Europe’s own single currency. Therefore, the vitality of the euro has its core national ties, cultural background, economic commonwealth, and religion. Although the euro has also experienced many attacks from the dollar and the pound and even after the financial crisis breakdown which had a serious impact on the eurozone, its current strength still exists.

日元的快速发展一方面是日本早就有“脱亚入欧”的思想,另一方面在二战后的政治、经济和军事上得到美国的大力支持,这也是为遏制中国和苏联。以此为前提,日本的制造业和全球贸易迅猛发展。日本在电器、大型机械和汽车领域的发展在上世纪八十年代成为世界第一。所以日元的发展不可阻挡。但是,美国通过“广场协议”,严重打击了日本经济和日元。而且欧元和人民币的发展也挤压了日元空间。所以日元目前是残花败柳,但还是有一点风韵犹存。                                                       The rapid development of the yen is on the one hand a result of Japan’s shift in ideological thinking. It chose to abandon old Asian ways to learn from Europe. After World War II it benefited from political, economic and military support from the United States. China and the Soviet Union were kept at bay by the Western powers at that time. Moreover, Japan's manufacturing industry and global trade were undergoing rapid development. Thanks to Japan’s prowess in manufacturing electrical equipment, large-scale machinery and automobiles it secured its place as one of world’s leading economies. The yen was winning a place among the leading currencies. However, through the Plaza accord, the US dealt a serious blow to the Japanese economy and the yen. Direct implication is that over time the euro and the renminbi filled the space as the yen lost ground. Therefore the yen is like a fading flower which still possesses its charm and remains attractive but has seen its day.    

从上述分析看,人民币的国际化没有四大储备货币的历史优势,没有战争重建和大国的支持,国际上有的只是竞争和挤压。我们靠自己经济的长期高速发展,成为世界第二大经济体,但人民币国际化的进程与此还不相匹配,一定程度上还是需要盯住美元。

The renminbi never held any dominant position in the global economy in the past. China had no support from the US or the UK for a bigger international role. Yet the strength of the Chinese economy made the world take notice of the importance of the renminbi. In the international arena there is only fierce competition and a constant contest for dominance. China relied on its own rapid economic development to become the world's second largest economy. The process of the internationalization of the renminbi needs to make further gains to fully reflect this status.

 

以第三方支付为核心的“金融科技”的表现

The “Belt and Road” Strategy and Financial Technology  

中国“一带一路”已经步入第二阶段:继“六个斯坦”、“蒙古”后,“东盟十国”成为“一带一路”最大经济区。“东盟十国”与我国市场贸易同质性最高的区域。由于“同性相斥”,东盟十国与中国处于对立关系,但是我国第三方支付已经进入“东盟十国”市场,并且收购了“东盟十国”的部分公司,在东南亚已经有了部分市场与交易量。

China’s the “Belt and Road" initiative is designed to boost trade and infrastructure ties with more than 60 countries, including the 10 members of ASEAN or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Together these countries form a huge economic zone. The next phase of this important initiative should include significant steps forward in financial technology. China's third-party payment systems have already entered the ASEAN market and Chinese companies have made several acquisitions in the region. Thanks to this, China has been contributing to the rise of Southeast Asia’s trade volume.                                             

传统观念认为:“一带一路”是修建铁路、公路、码头和机场。但按照前三点分析,在“马六甲”军事要地开展是十分艰苦的,必然涉及大国政治以及军事利益的博弈。据此,我们可以得出新结论——“建铁公基,不如建机站”,指的就是“金融科技和第三方支付”的金融机站和附属基础设施。

The traditional assumption has been that the “Belt and Road” initiative is largely focused on the construction of railways, highways, docks and airports. But we can draw another conclusion and that is that building railways is not necessarily as good as constructing stations. This refers to the financial technology and third-party payment system as the financial station and auxiliary infrastructure.                 

例如,蚂蚁金服收购印度“Pay TM”支付公司,并帮助其完善基础设施建设,即完成金融科技的基础设施建设(机站、发射塔、线路等)。在“蚂蚁金服”收购印度“Pay TM”公司之前,该公司之前只能提供2000万客户的容纳量,但是在“蚂蚁金服”资金注入并进行基础设施建设后,短短一年内,就扩展到2亿的客户容纳量。随着蚂蚁下一步资金投入和金融科技基础建设,最终可以容纳5-10亿的使用量,理论上可以达到印度及印度周围国家的全覆盖。而且,该过程润物细无声,不会引起政治动荡,因为技术不带有政治色彩。由此可以得出“金融科技”国际化的两大优点:第一,避免“马六甲海峡”的政治敏感性,同时也有利于地区稳定;第二,中国在拓展海外市场的同时提供技术帮助并教育如何使用金融科技,推动更广阔文化交流和技术交流。

For example, Ant Financial Service Group has acquired a leading Indian mobile payment company Pay TM and helped it to improve its business through the construction of new financial and technological infrastructure (stations, transmission towers, communication lines etc.). Before the acquisition of Pay TM India, the company could only provide service to 20 million customers, but after Ant Financial Service Group made its investment, the Indian company had extended its reach to 200 million customers. Along with this kind of assistance, Ant Financial Service Group is ultimately planning to reach between 500 million and 1 billion active users. Eventually, the goal is to provide nationwide service that covers all of India’s population. Moreover, this process should be carried out peacefully and noiselessly so as to avoid unnecessary political chatter. From this one can conclude that there are two major advantages of internationalization of “financial technology.” China is in the process of expanding into overseas markets. It can provide technical assistance and teach others how to use financial technology to promote broader cultural and technical exchanges.                            

基于以上分析,可得出“一带一路”发展新思路:“一带一路”的基础设施建设不应仅仅是“铁公基”,而应是“金机”,即“金融科技”的基础设施(例如机站、发射塔、网络和市场)的构建。而且,这个过程中帮助“欠发达地区”进行技术教育、市场的拓展,以此推动人民币的交易、清算和储备,进而推动人民币的国际化与“一带一路”的结合。

Based on this analysis, the “Belt and Road” initiative may develop a new way of thinking. Construction of infrastructure along the “Belt and Road” region promises not only new railways, ports and cargo airports but also a monetary base for further economic development. This also will help underdeveloped countries carry out necessary technological education and expand their own domestic markets. This will also promote transactions in renminbi. Without a doubt this will push forward the internalization of the renminbi and help integrate that with the “Belt and Road” initiative.

 

以第三方支付为核心“金融科技”的竞争优势

Competitive Advantages of Third Party Payments

随着世界各国反腐败、反洗钱、反恐怖融资工作的深入,现金的使用量大大减少。印度政府最近出台政策:收购市场上流通20%以上的现金,进行支付模式更新,包括信用卡、第三方支付和生物科技在支付模式上的运用(人脸、生物识别),进而减少现金的使用,防止腐败、洗钱和恐怖融资。因为现金用来行贿和走私,都不会留下痕迹,从另外一个角度体现了“现金为王”。但如果纳入支付体系,所有的腐败资金都会留下痕迹,各异被反洗钱金融情报中心监控到,并“由钱及人”,助力“追逃追赃”。

With the deepening of anti-corruption, anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing in the world, the use of cash has been greatly reduced. In order to modernize its payment model the Indian government has recently introduced a policy to buy more than 20% of the circulating cash in the market. That includes the use of credit cards, third party payments and biotechnology in the payment model (facial recognition system, biometrics), so that the use of ready money, preventing corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing will be significantly reduced. This is carried out because cash that is being used for bribery and smuggling doesn’t leave any traces. If a new payment system is set up, the ill-gotten funds will leave a trail of evidence. Different anti-money laundering intelligence centers would be created to monitor suspicious activities. These would ultimately arrest criminals and recover stolen money and goods.     

在世界大趋势的前提下,我国的“一带一路人民币国际化”在金融科技基础设施领域建设上走在前列,不但有利于中国的发展,也是帮助第三世界国家和欠发达国家发挥后发优势,直接跳跃两个阶段,即个人支票和信用卡的使用阶段,进入第三方支付的“金融科技”阶段。并防止“现金为王”带来的腐败问题。后发优势不但可以消除地区性歧视,还可以真正帮助其他国家得到实惠。例如中国就没有像美国一样经历个人支票使用的时代,美国由于传统消费习惯,个人支票和信用卡的使用具有一定的惯性,在消费方式中占绝大比例。因此中国帮助其他国家发展第三方支付优点如下:第一,带动不发达国家发挥后起的优势;第二,成本上基于金融科技的第三方支付的成本远远低于支票和信用卡支付。

China's program to internationalize the renminbi by way of the “Belt and Road” initiative will make a key contribution to the construction of financial technology infrastructure. It is not only for China's benefit alone as less developed countries will benefit through the creation of competitive advantages. This will allow them to leap over intermediary phases, namely the use of personal checks and credit cards into the stage of using third-party payment systems. This will also help create more robust anti-corruption mechanisms.                                                   Those advantages are not only capable of eliminating regional discrimination, but can also help other countries obtain tangible benefits. For example, China has not made such extensive use of personal checks as in the United States. Personal checks and credit cards account for a large proportion of domestic consumption in the US. As a result, China can help other countries develop third-party payment systems that provide employment outlets for talented youth and providing useful technology at a cost that is far below that of checks and credit cards.

 

以成本低为优势的普惠金融与“一带一路”理念的结合

Financial Inclusion and the “Belt and Road”

根据“蚂蚁金服”和“腾讯金融”的统计,以美国为例,从支付成本上,支票和信用卡的使用成本约为3%、跨国结算成本约为7%,成本极高,穷人几乎无法享受;而中国第三方支付成本在3‰至4‰之间,最多也不会超过6‰,而且随着中国的技术水平不断提高,处理成本将会越来越低。在开发成本上,IBM、EM(存储器)花费约为100亿,而我们的“云计算”花费仅仅为10-20亿。这样我们就与美国拉开了差距,我们提供了全球化的“穷人金融”和“普惠金融”,增加了不发达地区的金融可得性。由于成本低、普及率高、金融可得性强,因此更符合世界“普惠金融”和“世界穷人金融”的发展理念和模式,也给不发达地区提供缩小与发达地区之间差距的机会。更多的使用中国的第三方支付等金融科技,进而推动人民币的交易和储备,使世界金融领域是“平的”。因此,无论是对政治成本、经济成本、企业成本的分析,还是对金融消费者的成本分析。金融科技在第三方支付领域已明显优于目前信用卡和支票支付以及银行传统支付效果,优势呈“数量级”增长显而易见。从3%至7%降低到3‰至4‰,可见穷人真正得到了普惠。

According to data from Ant Financial Service Group and Tencent, the average cost in payments by check or credit cards are estimated at about about 3%, and transnational settlement costs are about 7%. Those are pretty big numbers, and they are a substantial barrier to the poor. In China, the cost of using third-party payment systems is estimated at 0.03% to 0.04% on average and at no more than 0.06%. As China's technological level continues to improve, processing costs will be lower and lower. From the development cost side, 16 BM, EM (memory unit) expenditure is approximately about 10 billion yuan and our "cloud computing" cost is only 10-20 billion yuan. In that way we have increased a gap between China and United States. We have already provided the globalization of “poor people’s finances” under the banner of "financial inclusiveness." We have thereby made financing more available in underdeveloped areas.                                      This is also a perfect opportunity to narrow the gap between developed and underdeveloped areas. The internationalization of third-party payment system and the internationalization of the renminbi will flatten the financial world, giving rise to new areas with competitive advantages.  No matter how we make our assessments, whether by comparing political costs or economic costs, business costs or costs to consumers, we can see that third-party payments are significantly better than credit cards and checks. Traditional banking will slowly fade away. The advantages of the "order of magnitude" growth are obvious.

从这个角度看无论是从中国利益出发,还是从“一带一路”投资的国家角度出发都是利国利民的,对市场、消费者和人民币国际化有利。我们认为建铁路、码头、机场,不如建立金融科技的机站,我们将以此为前提做进一步的调研。

From this perspective, whether it is from the political interests of China or from the “Belt and Road” national economic investments, all of those will benefit the country the ordinary people, the market, the consumers and the internationalization of the renminbi. We believe that the constructions of railways, docks, airports, are not as good as the establishment of financial technology infrastructure which we refer to as the “station.”

最后,从宏观上来看,中国在境外投资建设的铁路目前是赔钱的,其成本极高。但中国金融科技的机站建立是盈利的,因此目前中国基础设施的建设有狭隘性,下一 步,不仅仅包括的“铁公基”基础设施,更应该包括金融科技相关的基础设施。

Finally, from a macroeconomic view, China is currently losing money on foreign investments in railway construction. Costs are high but the establishment of China's financial technology for the “stations” is much less so. China lacks experience in building foreign infrastructure. The next step should include not only development of classical infrastructure but also financial technology infrastructure.

 

Global Challenges

第三方支付不可能代替银行支付,而不是要抛弃银行支付,所以和传统银行支付没有冲突,只是银行支付的创新。基于“FINTEC”的第三方支付市场是银行支付手段的延伸与升级,但并不与银行的支付相冲突,而是相当于银行发展的“革命”。就好比当年的信用卡代替支票,影响范围之大更有利于普惠大众。如果总是在美国之后,依照美国的传统,将无法跨阶段发展,更无法赶超。

Third-party payments cannot replace bank payments and it cannot lead to an abandoning of the banking system. That means there is no conflict between the new and old platforms. It is merely an innovation for bank payments. The third party payment market based on "FINTEC" is a means for traditional banks to extend their reach and upgrade their services. It is not unlike the time when credit cards first began replacing checks. This time the impact is more beneficial to large groups of people. The United States cannot catch up and enter the next phase as it is hampered by its traditional approach.

国家保护主义的影响

The Impact on Protectionism

出于金融安全的需要各国刚开始也都不会允许,但是第三方支付任可以方便小额民众支付需求,服务“长尾”客户。而且, 基于WTO规则,市场经济国家的支付市场应该开放。其典型者,VISA、MASTER就依国际法抢占了银联市场。按照国家安全部们的观点,VISA、MASTER进入中国市场确实影响了中国的金融安全,方便了反华势力的基金流动,甚至有恐怖融资的危险,并以新西兰、伊拉克的现实案例为佐证,但中国还是尊重了WTO的开放规则。相应的,我国的第三方支付也应该得到其他国家的许可。

Due to the need for financial security, many countries are wary of new financial concepts, but third-party payment systems can facilitate managing the needs of small populations and serve "long tail" customers. Moreover, based on World Trade Organization rules, the payment system of market-economy countries need to be more open to competition. Visa and Mastercard, in accordance with international law, have taken some of UnionPay’s market. According to the National Security Department's point of view, Visa and Mastercard affected China's financial security after they entered the Chinese market. They facilitated anti-China financial forces, allowing them to move funds around the country. That also posed new terrorism risks. Examples can be found in destabilized countries such as Iraq. China respects WTO regulations and so should other countries as well – by opening up their countries to Chinese third-party payment systems and giving them permission to run their business.                         

最后,总结一下,第三方支付是对旧秩序的冲击,仍然具有风险。例如,“生物识别技术”、“非生物识别识别”和“行为识别”的不完善,仍有着欺骗和窃取账户的危险。加上部分群众对“金融科技”技术的不理解、担心也、“备付金”被挪用等问题,都有待遇进一步解决、完善。古语有云:“圣人起,而,大盗兴”,金融带来的便利也给洗钱和恐怖主义融资带来了便利。与腐败领域的“现金为王”略有不同,金融科技的环球便捷性和快速性,给AML/CFT提出了挑战,有如双刃剑,因此,在创新的同时,加强AML/CFT的监管,才能保证金融科技第三方支付的健康发展。

To sum up, the third party payment system has to deal with an old order and it still possesses risks. For example, the imperfections of "biometrics," "non-biometric identification" and "behavioral identification" still allow the systems to be compromised. Individuals may still use deception in order to steal accounts and sensitive data. Some people haven’t fully grasped the implications of "financial technology." They are still afraid of these risks and prefer to use cash. That is why the whole process is still waiting to move upwards to another level.

 

 

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