【双语】（钟伟圆桌）美中央行的加息与缩表：虚还是实？

美中央行的加息与缩表：虚还是实？

Interest Rates and Shrinking the Fed Balance Sheet

 

进入2017年以来，金融圈热议的词汇有两个，一个是加息，另一个是缩表。而热词所指向的对象则是美联储和中国央行。越来越多的研究者关注到，美联储从退出量宽到渐进加息已日益明朗，同时，包括美联储主席耶伦在内的一些官员也在表达对收缩美联储资产负债规模的动机。中国经济则经历着稳中趋好的景象。中性稳健的货币政策和金融去杠杆的监管政策搭配，推动了市场利率的上升和资产价格的调整。人们也在揣测中国央行是否可能会推动缩表进程。加息与缩表两大热词背后的虚虚实实究竟如何？

Since the beginning of 2017, two issues have attracted great attention in financial circles. One is the pace of increases in US interest rates and the other is how soon the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet. Both are likely to have an impact on China's central bank as well as the Fed. The Fed has made clear it has shifted from quantitative easing to gradual increases in interest rates. It has also said it wants to unwind the US$4.5 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet, according to statements by Fed officials, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen. China's economy is showing stable growth. The sound and neutral monetary policy now in effect, combined with regulatory policies that promote financial deleveraging, set the stage for an increase in market interest rates and an adjustment of asset prices. Market players are speculating whether the People's Bank of China will push for what would be a Chinese version of shrinking the domestic balance sheet. Where are US and Chinese interest rates headed and will there be balance sheet reductions in either country? These are among the topics in our latest round table discussion.

主持人：钟  伟 博士，《中国外汇》副主编

嘉  宾：管清友 博士， 民生证券 副总裁

      林采宜 博士，国泰君安首席经济学家

Zhong Wei, deputy director of China Forex, leads the discussion with Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities, and Lin Caiyi, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities.

钟伟：美联储的加息已是现实，但何时美联储会付诸缩表？尽管作为美国量宽的始作俑者的伯南克认为，缩表并不困难。但实际操作中，是否应当周密斟酌美国经济增长的暂时疲弱，资产价格的居高不下，以及国际资本流动的变局等因素。考虑到量宽扩表属于伯南克的政治遗产，以及耶伦的任期问题等更多因素，两位认为美联储启动缩表需要何种适宜条件？有可能会何时执行缩表？

Zhong Wei: The US Federal Reserve has moved to push interest rates higher, but when will it shrink its balance sheet? Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke, the initiator of the quantitative easing policy in the United States, insisted that shrinking the balance sheet would not be difficult. However, the Fed has found that this is in fact not so easy to do. It needs to carefully consider the strength of US economic growth, high asset prices and changes in international capital flows among other factors. In your opinion, given the quantitative easing and the vast enlargement of the balance sheet under Bernanke and his successor Janet Yellen, what are the right conditions for the Fed to reduce the size of the balance sheet? When might this actually take place?

管清友：分析美联储缩表的适宜条件需要首先考量这一轮加息周期的本质。美联储的这一轮紧缩与此前1994年、2004年的两轮是不一样的，前两轮有明显的经济过热基础，从耐用品、房地产等需求中可以看到明显过热的态势；但从2015年加息落地的情况来看，当时美国大部分主要经济数据还没有恢复到过去十年的均值水平。此轮加息，实质上是美联储为了预防未来风险下的货币政策枯竭而进行的货币政策回归常态化。美国一方面很注意全球经济环境，另一方面很关注金融市场的波动，而如果为了预防风险的加息却触发了风险，则就本末倒置了。这也就可以理解，为何此轮加息到现在都显格外鸽派。

基于这样的一个本质，考虑到缩表相较加息是更直接的资产出售，美联储缩表大概率将在联邦基金利率回到适当水平后，同时全球金融环境和美国经济数据处在一个相对温和的背景下才会开启。再考虑到目前美联储官员的表态，开始缩表的时间大概率在2017年底到2018年初。

Guan Qingyou: We need to examine the nature of the most recent round of interest rate hikes if we want to understand the appropriate conditions for the Federal Reserve to act on its plans to shrink its balance sheet. This round of tightening by the Federal Reserve is different from the previous rounds in 1994 and 2004. During the first two rounds the economy was showing signs of overheating and that applied to durable goods, real estate and other areas. When the Fed raised interest rates in December 2015, major US economic indicators had not recovered to the average levels of the past decade. In this round of interest rate increases the Federal Reserve is trying to normalize monetary policy. On one hand, the US attaches great importance to the global economic environment. On the other hand, it is concerned about the volatility in financial markets. If an interest rate hike is aimed at preventing risk but instead actually accentuates risk, this is something that should be avoided. It is therefore not surprising at all that the pace of interest rate hikes has been extraordinarily slow.

基于这样的一个本质，考虑到缩表相较加息是更直接的资产出售，美联储缩表大概率将在联邦基金利率回到适当水平后，同时全球金融环境和美国经济数据处在一个相对温和的背景下才会开启。再考虑到目前美联储官员的表态，开始缩表的时间大概率在2017年底到2018年初。

Shrinking the balance sheet is more straightforward as it merely involves the sale of assets. The Federal Reserve could start the process when the fed funds rate returns to an appropriate level, conditions in the global financial environment are stable and American economic indicators are generally favorable. Based on the remarks of former officials of the Fed, it is estimated that the Federal Reserve will shrink the balance sheet by the end of 2017 or at the beginning of 2018.

 

 

林采宜：统计数据显示，美联储此前通过三轮量化宽松，其总资产已从2007年的8943亿美元扩张到2014年的4.5万亿。到2016年，美联储的资产负债表规模仍然有44515亿美元。其中，90%为国债和MBS，总规模达到近4万亿美元。因此，随着经济的稳健复苏，美联储必然通过缩表来逐步处理如此庞大规模的国债和MBS。从外部环境来看，随着特朗普的税收新政执行，国际资本流向美国，产业进一步集聚，美国经济中长期的强势增长几乎没有悬念。因此，在任何时候缩表都不至于使得美国经济发展势头出现逆转。今年下半年开始，缩表很有可能就进入操作阶段。

Lin Caiyi: The Federal Reserve undertook three rounds of quantitative easing, with its assets expanding from US$894.3 billion in 2007 to US$4.5 trillion in 2014. By 2016, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was still US$4.45 trillion. Some 90% of that total, or about US$4 trillion, was in treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. With the steady recovery of the economy, the Federal Reserve must gradually undertake large scale sales of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as it shrinks its balance sheet. At the same time we could have an implementation of Trump's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending as well as a policy that favors American industry. Along with this we could see international capital flowing back to the United States. As a result, we are likely to see solid economic growth over the longer term in the US. A shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet under those conditions would not reverse the momentum of the US economy. It is likely that in the second half of this year, the plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet will enter into the operational phase.

钟伟：进入2017年以来，中国金融环境也有明显变化，货币政策以宏观审慎框架为基础，呈稳健中性；监管政策以去杠杆为主调，不断进行风险排查和释放。人们既观察到了人民币利率趋升和汇率趋稳，也观察到了宏观经济短周期的强势，以及楼市、股市、债市的波动。一些金融机构的资产负债表规模已呈缩表迹象。一些研究猜测，中国式的缩表也势在必行；另一些学者则认为，缩表在中国尚言之过早，中国央行尚不具备以持续降低存款准备金率为标志的缩表时机。两位认为，中国央行是否也在跟随美联储，有可能进行加息和缩表操作吗？

Zhong Wei: China's financial environment has changed significantly this year. Monetary policy is stable and neutral under a macro-prudential framework and regulatory policy continues to pursue deleveraging as a means of reducing risk. There has been a rise in domestic interest rates and a stabilization of the renminbi exchange rate. At the same time, despite volatility in the property, stock and bond markets, there has been fairly strong economic growth. Some financial institutions have managed to shrink the size of their own balance sheets. Some scholars suggest that it is time for a Chinese-style shrinking of the balance sheet, while others believe it is still too early as the central bank has been reluctant to reduce the reserve ratio on bank deposits. In your opinion, is it possible for the Chinese central bank to follow the Federal Reserve by raising benchmark interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet?

管清友：央行在施行货币政策的时候，首先要考虑的因素就是维持金融稳定，促进本国经济发展，当然央行本身也的确有多重目标均衡的问题，美国是这样，中国亦是如此。

Guan Qingyou: As the central bank implements monetary policy, the first factor to be considered is maintaining financial stability and promoting national economic development. The central bank has to strike a balance with its multiple objectives. This is true in the United States and China as well.

 

中国央行2017年的政策基调是维持金融稳定、不出现重大金融风险，去杠杆的同时挤压资产泡沫，其实是为了金融更好的服务实体经济，挤虚向实。这就决定了在维持金融稳定、经济发展的大前提下，央行将会维持货币政策一个紧平衡和强监管的态势。具体而言，就是使用短期流动性调节工具（SLO）、短期借贷便利（SLF）等短期流动性调节工具，通过精准调控来维持市场稳定，达到微加息的效果，但目前来看尚不存在提升基准利率式加息的必要和趋势。

The Chinese central bank’s key policy in 2017 is to maintain financial stability while squeezing out asset bubbles and achieving an overall deleveraging. This will make the financial system serve the real economy in a more practical manner. It also means that the central bank will maintain a relatively tight monetary policy and a strict regulatory stance. Specifically, short-term liquidity adjustment tools, such as the short-term liquidity operations (SLOs) and the standing lending facilities (SLFs), will be used to maintain market stability. These are more targeted tools that can be used to achieve the same goals as small increases in interest rates. However, there is no need for increases in benchmark interest rates at this time.

 

 

这一轮金融周期的紧缩与去杠杆的方略，并非传统意义上的缩表，可以说，中美缩表并非同一个意义。美国的缩表是央行基础货币式的缩表，主要体现在央行资产负债表的缩减；而在我国强监管的态势下的缩表是商业银行整体信用式的缩表，主要体现在商业银行及非银金融机构内部信用循环派生的缩减，和金融自我繁荣和过度加杠杆的缩减。The strategy of tightening monetary policy and achieving a general deleveraging throughout the economy is not the equivalent of shrinking the central bank balance sheet as proposed in the US. In China, it would be an effort to reduce leveraging by shrinking the lending activities of commercial banks and the use of financial derivative products by the banks and the non-bank financial sector.

 

林采宜：从2017年以来的央行货币政策取向和公开市场操作来看，中国央行被动缩表的可能性相对较大。即在资产项下的外汇资产趋于减少，同时负债项下的政府存款趋于减少。首先，随着过去两年外汇储备的下行，央行始终没有实施降准，只是通过逆回购、中期借贷便利（MLF）、短期借贷便利（SLF）等灵活性货币政策工具来调节流动性，实际上是在为缩表创造技术基础。其次，积极财政政策下的政府财政赤字扩大，在央行的政府存款自去年10月以来就逐渐减少，从3.76万亿降至今年4月份的2.87万亿，今后这个趋势将大概率持续。以上两项，分别从资产和负债两端导致资产负债表的被动缩减。Lin Caiyi: Based on what we have seen this year in terms of the central bank's monetary policy and its open market operations, it is highly likely that the People's Bank of China will need to make a passive shrinking of the balance sheet. That is, foreign exchange assets decrease and government deposits – or liabilities – also decrease. With the decline in foreign exchange reserves over the past two years, the central bank has not yet been able to make changes in benchmark interest rates. Instead, it has adjusted liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements on the money market as well as the use of the medium-term lending facility (MLF), the short-term lending facility (SLF) and other flexible monetary policy tools. This actually has set the technical foundation for shrinking the balance sheet. The government fiscal deficit is expanding under a proactive fiscal policy. Governmental deposits in the banking system have gradually declined, falling from 3.76 trillion yuan in October of last year to 2.87 trillion yuan in April of this year. This downward trend will continue. The above two items result in a passive shrinking of the balance sheet from both the asset and the liability sides.

 

此外，在银行等金融机构的理财资金委外限制和资产管理资金池业务限制等各项监管正常收紧的环境下，资产负债规模收缩在所难免，这又客观上导致银行及非银金融机构在央行存款的减少。从负债端促使央行被动缩表。从货币政策的基调来看，中国央行被动缩表的可能性倒是比较大。至于是否加息，或更多取决于CPI上涨的幅度及美联储加息的节奏。

In addition, shrinking the balance sheet is inevitable as China moves ahead with all sorts of regulatory tightening, such as putting limits on some wealth management operations and restricting cash pooling by the asset management arms of financial institutions. This results in reduced deposits at banks and non-bank financial institutions. Thus the liability side forces the central bank to shrink the balance sheet. In terms of the basic tone of monetary policy, it is also possible for the central bank to shrink the balance sheet in a passive fashion. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes will depend on the extent of the rise in the consumer price index and the frequency of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

 

钟伟：人们普遍关心缩表与经济增长，缩表与资产价格波动之间的相互关系。2017年1季度，美国经济增长疲弱，股市不断创历史新高。与此形成鲜明对比的是，同期中国经济增长相当稳健，同时股债和楼市均陷入调整。在两位看来，如若美中均步入加息和缩表，有可能对经济增长、资产价格乃至全球经济格局带来怎样的冲击？

Zhong Wei: Market players generally pay close attention to the relation between shrinking the balance sheet and economic growth as well as fluctuations in asset prices. In the first quarter of 2017, US economic growth was weak and the stock market continued to reach record highs. In sharp contrast, China's economic growth during the same period remained quite stable, with the stock and the property markets stuck in an adjustment phase. In your opinion, if the United States manages to raise interest rates and shrink the central bank balance sheet, what impact would that have on economic growth, asset prices and even the global economy?

管清友：目前对于中美同步进入缩表的表述尚不准确，金融周期的收缩重叠则更为准确。美国更早一步在2015年进入了实质性加息，中国也在去年年底开始进入了稳健中性的货币政策，这其中有主动也有无奈。在美国加息紧缩+中国强监管的紧平衡这样的一个搭配下，再加上今年年底欧洲也有可能缩减QE，使得当前更像是一个全球货币潮水退潮的过程。那么，过去在流动性浪潮中享受利好的资产可能会出现不同的走向。

Guan Qingyou: At present, it is not clear whether China and the United States will be able to shrink their balance sheets at the same time, but it is clear that there is some overlap in their cyclical financial contraction. The United States made one interest rate hike in 2015. China moved to what it calls a stable and neutral monetary policy at the end of last year. With the combination of higher US interest rates, China's move to a tighter regulatory stance and a possible shrinking of quantitative easing in Europe by the end of this year, what we observe is an outflow of currency. Assets that previously benefited from increased liquidity in the past will now see a considerable change.

对于中国而言，短期和长期受到的影响可能是不一样的。短期来看，全球金融市场处于一个对美联储加息和缩表之前的情绪真空期。一方面，美联储加息的预期比较饱满，年底隐含的利率加息次数和实质加息次数之间的空间很小；另一方面，美联储缩表最快也要在2017年年底正式进入讨论，落地大概率在2018年年初。因此，短期内，中国国内资产价格更多取决于国内的货币政策和监管政策，外围的掣肘并不明显。中美长端利率息差目前具有较高的缓冲垫。长期来看，影响的根本还是在于中美相对经济周期、货币周期的位置。我们现在已经看到了国内出清的决心和毅力，这是房地产周期、库存周期、金融周期重叠紧缩的一个现状，关键在于出清的力度和结果如何。

For China, the short and long-term impacts may be somewhat different. Before the Federal Reserve pushes interest rates higher and shrinks its balance sheet, the markets are basically in limbo. There is room for US interest rate hikes but the Fed will not start shrinking the balance sheet until the end of this year or early 2018. In the short term, China’s domestic asset prices will depend more on domestic monetary and regulatory policies, while external issues appear less significant.

对于美国及全球金融市场而言，可以参考日本和欧洲的缩表经验。日本的主动缩表对股市债市和经济都带来负面影响，欧洲的被动缩表则对市场和经济影响不大。结合目前美联储面临的经济形势，被动缩表比主动缩表更加简捷，风险也相对更小，因此，预计美联储会采用被动缩表的方式。被动缩表对美国经济增长和资产价格的影响在短期内具有脉冲性，但长期影响相对温和。

For the United States and the global financial markets, there is much to be learned from the experience of Japan and Europe in shrinking the balance sheet. Japan’s efforts had a negative impact on the stock market and the economy, while in Europe there was only a limited impact. Given the economic situation facing the Federal Reserve, a passive shrinking of the balance sheet, or not reinvesting once securities mature, is a simpler way to go with much less risk. It is likely that the Federal Reserve will take the passive route, which will mean some short term impact on US asset prices and economic growth, but only a mild effect over the longer term.

 

 

林采宜：实际上，央行缩表并不代表货币政策紧缩。比起缩表、扩表，在央行货币政策引导下，市场利率中枢的移动对经济增长及资产价格波动的影响更为直接。因此，我个人认为，加息对于经济增长和资产价格的上涨具有一定的抑制效应，同时对吸引外来资本有一定的积极作用，而缩表不一定有明确的影响。

Lin Caiyi: In fact, a shrinking of the central bank balance sheet does not mean monetary tightening. Compared to shrinking or enlarging the balance sheet, under the guidance of the central bank's monetary policy, the movement of market interest rates has a more direct impact on economic growth and asset prices. Raising interest rates has a certain inhibitory effect on economic growth and asset prices, but it also has a positive role in attracting foreign capital. Shrinking the balance sheet does not necessarily have a clear impact on growth.

 

钟伟：金融既要稳，也要活。在过去四年，中国金融业经历了钱荒、股灾、熔断、网贷泡沫等一系列金融事件的冲击。在未来数年，中国货币政策和监管政策如何协调，才能在稳增长和控风险之间找到恰当的平衡点？在今年下半年，货币及监管政策宜进行怎样的微调，才能让金融更好服务于实体，稳中见活，而不是稳中有险？

Zhong Wei: The finance sector needs stability but it also must show vitality. In the past four years, China's financial industry has suffered a series of financial setbacks, such as credit shortages, a stock market crash, and internet lending bubbles and so on. Over the next few years, how can China's monetary and regulatory policies be coordinated to strike the right balance between steady growth and risk control? In the second half of this year, how can monetary and regulatory policies be fine-tuned so that they better serve the underlying economy? How can authorities ensure the economy posts steady growth without excessive risk?

 

管清友：回顾过去几年，金融自由化已大幅发展。“一行三会”模式对应的是分业经营。例如现在保险资金也可以入市了，那么，这部分交叉领域该归谁来监管，保监会还是证监会？工行、建行和交行都设立了基金公司，这些公司又该由银监会管还是证监会来监管？像这种业务界限模糊的领域其实很多，而且随着市场准入的放宽，这种领域将越来越多。现有的“一行三会”监管架构既有监管重叠更有监管真空，也存在监管标准不统一、严宽尺度不统一、信息不穿透等很多问题。2015年股票市场异常波动后，政府对整个金融监管的调整并没有实施到位。目前，“宏观审慎监管+机构监管+职能监管”的金融监管思路是清晰的，但这种监管体系尚未形成，以至于在强化金融监管时只注意到了部门协调的问题，监管时一起发力，导致对整个市场的影响骤然加大。

Guan Qingyou: Looking back over the past few years, financial liberalization has made significant strides. The division of regulatory chores among the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has been made to reflect largely separate spheres of business. But if insurance funds are channeled to other parts of the financial market, which authority is responsible for regulation? If a big commercial bank runs a fund management company, which authority is responsible for supervising that operation? As market access improves, there will be more areas of blurred regulatory responsibility. The current regulatory framework has created a number of overlapping areas with unclear regulatory standards, different rules, inadequate transparency and other issues. Since the abnormal stock market fluctuations of 2015, the government has been adjusting its financial regulatory environment but more work needs to be done. The present regulatory pattern is targeted at a combination of macro-prudential supervision, institutional supervision and functional supervision. These still need to be refined.

 

展望后续的货币政策，我认为，鉴于当前决策层对于经济的运行下线忍耐度提升，但对于金融泡沫与经济顽疾的忍耐度降低，因此，只要不是危及系统性稳健的程度，经济下行难以再逼迫货币政策转向。至少“量价双松”的老路不会再走，我们或许会看到“价紧量松”的局面。一方面，“量松”就保证了流动性危机是不会出现的，风险底线可以守住；另一方面，“价紧”也就是需要流动性的机构可获得的资金价格必须带有一定的惩罚性质，可以保证去杠杆与挤资产泡沫的成果可以守住。

 

Looking to future monetary policy, I think there is greater tolerance at the decision-making level towards the downward growth trend of the economy and reduced tolerance of financial bubbles. The downward economic growth trend will not force a change in monetary policy as long as the soundness of the financial system is not affected.

林采宜：货币政策和监管政策在周期上最好能实现一定程度的“对冲”关系。例如，监管机构取消资产管理机构资金池业务，以及对银行理财资金委外管理做出严格限制，其初衷都是为了控制金融机构的系统风险，但是如果在执行监管措施的过程中叠加流动性收缩，那么股票、债券的二级市场都会面临严重失血，引发崩溃式下跌风险。因此，清理违规资金，逼使它们退出二级市场时，货币政策宜宽松，使得市场资金环境短期内相对平衡；而资产价格上涨时，货币政策宜适当收紧，以避免资产泡沫的形成或者扩大。

Lin Caiyi: Monetary and regulatory policies are best when they “offset each other” to a certain degree. For example, regulators could abolish the cash pooling business of asset management companies while imposing strict curbs on the “outsourcing” of management of bank wealth management operations. The original intention of policy makers was to control the systemic risks of financial institutions. However, if there is a contraction of liquidity as other regulatory measures are rolled out, the stock and bond markets could face severe shocks. That would risk a much more dramatic downturn. Therefore, while forcing funds out of the secondary markets there is a need for a more relaxed monetary policy.

钟伟：看起来当下是次贷危机后，主要经济体的经济增长和长期流动性处于回归常态化均值的缓慢过程，缩表并不紧迫但是被动式缩表的概率犹存，如果处理得当，加息和缩表的冲击是渐进可控的。对中国而言，对过高增长率期望值的下降和对金融泡沫容忍度的降低，导致货币政策和监管政策偏松的环境不复存在。金融稳中求活，紧中求实的趋势逐渐明朗化。

Zhong Wei: Since the disruptions of the subprime mortgage crisis, the major economies have seen a gradual return to normal growth and more adequate long-term liquidity. While there are no signs of an imminent shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, there could be a passive reduction. The impact of a smaller balance sheet and higher interest rates can be relatively limited if attained in a controlled and gradual manner. For China, the reduced expectations for economic growth and a diminished tolerance for financial bubbles should ensure that there is no overly loose monetary or regulatory policy environment. With a stable financial sector, and the prospect of concrete results from a tighter environment is becoming clearer.