【双语】沈建光：人民币国际化再出发的时机来临

人民币国际化再出发的时机来临

A Fresh Opportunity for Renminbi Internationalization

 

 

4月，中国外汇储备增至3.03万亿美元，连续3个月呈回升态势，表明在人民币汇率稳定的背景下，资本外流压力已经明显减轻。保汇率与保外储二者择一是个伪命题：外汇储备下跌与人民币汇率大幅贬值预期密切相关，3万亿美元外储并非生命线，确保汇率稳定有助于防范大规模资本外流和金融风险。

 

China's foreign exchange reserves rose to US$3.03 trillion in April, marking the third straight month of increases amid stability in the renminbi exchange rate and reduced pressure from capital outflows. There has been much debate as to whether China should protect its foreign exchange reserves or defend the currency's exchange rate. This is actually a false choice. Sharp declines in foreign exchange reserves are closely linked to expectations that the renminbi will depreciate. At the same time, the US$3 trillion reserve level is not a line in the sand. But ensuring exchange rate stability will help prevent large-scale capital outflows and financial risks.

 

对于近一段时间人民币汇率与外汇储备的齐升，有以下两方面的原因。首先是与外部环境变化导致美元触顶回落密切相关。欧元区政治经济转好，法国大选未再次上演黑天鹅事件以及特朗普新政不及预期，导致美元升值态势逆转。预计今年美元或将出现拐点，可缓解人民币贬值与资本外流压力。其次，也得益于中国经济企稳、货币政策收紧以及前期资本管理政策的实施。今年年初以来，为缓解人民币贬值压力，央行采取了包括加大直接参与外汇买卖的力度、提高离岸市场做空人民币的成本，以及加强跨境资金流动管理等诸多稳定汇率的措施。

 

The renminbi's exchange rate and the nation's foreign exchange reserves have been rising in tandem recently. There are a number of reasons for this. First, the external environment has changed, with the dollar hitting a peak and then falling back. The eurozone has also seen improvements in its economic and political environment, including the solid victory in the French presidential election for the pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has so far been unable to deliver much in his "Make America Great Again" agenda, and that has taken some of the buoyancy out of the dollar. It is likely that that the dollar will reach a turning point this year, and that will ease the downward pressure on the renminbi and reduce capital outflows. The renminbi has also benefited from the stabilizing of China's economy as well as a tighter monetary policy and the implementation of fresh capital management measures. Since the beginning of this year, in order to reduce the downward pressure on the renminbi, the central bank has stepped up intervention in the foreign exchange market, increased the cost of shorting the renminbi in the offshore market and tightened the management rules for cross-border capital flows.

 

对此，曾有部分观点质疑，中国正在重拾部分资本管制，并认为这是人民币国际化与改革的倒退，会重挫投资者的信心。中国央行副行长、外汇局局长潘功胜在今年3月底的中国发展高层论坛上就此做出了回应。他指出，去年ODI增速井喷40%，比往年增幅提高了20%—30%，其中不乏非理性和异常的投资行为，有的是借对外直接投资之名行转移资产之实。

 

This has raised concerns among some observers that China may be turning the clock back to the days of strict capital controls. That would be a setback in the program to internationalize the renminbi and reform the currency regime. It would also damage investor confidence. Pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the People's Bank of China and administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, addressed these concerns at a key business meeting, the China Development Forum, in late March. He pointed out that overseas direct investment surged 40% last year, well above the levels of previous years. Many of these investments were irrational and in some cases were merely asset transfers in the name of foreign direct investment.

 

对于市场担忧的外商企业利润无法正常汇出，潘功胜也做出了解释：外商企业资金汇出需要满足一些条件，一是按照中国相关法律要求，要弥补以前的亏损；二是有董事会的利润分配决议；三是有经审计司审计的财务报表；四是有在中国的完税证明。满足这些要求，企业利润汇出没有障碍。

 

As to concerns that China might choke off profit remittances of foreign businesses, Pan said there would be no obstacles to moving profits offshore if they meet certain conditions. The profits need to be in accordance with relevant Chinese legal requirements and take into account any previous losses. There also must be a profit distribution plan backed by the board of directors, an audited financial statement and documents showing that taxes had been paid. If these requirements have been met, there are no obstacles to remitting corporate profits.

 

资本管制的利弊并非泾渭分明，关键在于“度”的把握。虽然资本管制短期或会挫伤投资者对改革的信心；但长期看，如果以一定的资本管制避免了币值大幅贬值的预期以及大规模资本流出的冲击，则反而有助于赢得投资者对中国经济稳定的信心，并为推进改革赢得缓冲时间。实际上，IMF在亚洲金融危机后也对资本项目完全可兑换进行了反思，并提出资本项目基本可兑换的目标。

 

The pros and cons of capital controls are not always so clearly defined. The key lies in how the controls are applied. Although more controls in the short term will dampen investor confidence in reform, there could be some longer term benefits. If certain capital controls can help deflect expectations of currency depreciation by reducing capital outflows, this will ultimately shore up investor confidence in the stability of the Chinese economy. That in turn will win time for the economic reform drive. In fact, since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, the International Monetary Fund has been reassessing its calls for complete capital account convertibility. Instead, it has supported basic targets for capital account convertibility.

 

可以肯定的是，当前人民币大幅贬值与资本大规模外流的压力已有所减轻,这对于推进人民币国际化改革进程而言,是有利时机。近期，多位央行人士也就人民币国际化做出了积极表态。如央行副行长潘功胜就指出，“打开的窗户不会再关上”，但“改革不能仅有目标，还要有达成目标的策略”；央行副行长易纲也表示，“人民币国际化是一个中长期战略，要保持定力，稳步实现目标”。

 

To be sure, there has been an easing of pressure for a substantial depreciation of the renminbi and large-scale capital outflows. This can be seen as a good opportunity to promote the internationalization of the renminbi. Recently, a number of senior officials of the central bank have made public statements that lend support to reforms such as the internationalization of the currency. Pan stated that the economy's "open window will not be closed," and added that "reform should not only have targets, but also strategies to achieve its goals." Yi Gang, vice governor of PBOC also said, "Renminbi internationalization is a long-term strategy, and perseverance is needed to make steady progress towards this goal."

 

在跨境资本流动风险降低的背景下，决策层有必要更加细致地对项目进行甄别：一方面，对一些已认定为非理性的投资加强监管，并打击地下钱庄等非法行为；另一方面，对于符合资金汇出条件的利润以及个人合理的换汇需求也应予以满足。

 

As the risks from cross-border capital flows decline, authorities still need to make a careful screening of the items under the capital account. There is a need for strengthened supervision over some of the less rigorously considered investment projects and action should be taken against underground banks. At the same time, there must be guarantees for outbound remittances of corporate profits that meet regulatory conditions while individuals need access to foreign exchange for reasonable purposes.

 

5月16日，央行与香港金管局联合公告，同意开展香港与内地间的“债券通”。这是加大资本项目开放、促进资金双向流动的举措。

On May 16, the People’s Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) have jointly announced details of the long-awaited Bond Connect scheme, which promotes the opening of the capital account and two-way cross-border fund flows.

 

综上，虽然政治局会议将“维护国家金融安全”作为今年中国经济工作的重要任务，各监管机构也纷纷采取行动以防范金融风险，但显然，今年防范金融风险的重点在内而非在外。预计今年国内金融去杠杆会持续深入，并有望加快推进资本项目开放与人民币国际化进程。这也是对质疑资本项目开放与人民币国际化倒退的回应，有利于重拾投资者对中国改革的信心。

 

The Politburo has listed "safeguarding national financial security" as one of the important tasks in China's economic work this year. Regulators have also actively applied measures to guard against financial risks. However, it is obvious that the main financial risks are domestic in origin. It is likely that the effort to reduce financial leverage will gain momentum this year, and that could accelerate the opening of the capital account and the process of internationalizing the renminbi. This is a response to the doubts that have been expressed over the nation's resolve in pursuing an opening of the capital account and the internationalization of the renminbi. Ultimately, this will be conducive to reinforcing investor confidence in China's reform program.