【双语】美联储布雷纳德:或可撤除额外宽松举措,继续逐步升息

发布:2017-05-03 17:13 来源: 中国外汇网
2017年3月1日,美国联邦储备理事会理事布雷纳德在哈佛肯尼迪学院发表关于美国经济前景和货币政策的讲话。

2017年3月1日,美国联邦储备理事会理事布雷纳德在哈佛肯尼迪学院发表关于美国经济前景和货币政策的讲话。布雷纳德表示:

◆全球经济正逐渐改善;

◆美国复苏步伐稳健;

◆中国近来的举措对美国经济有所帮助;

◆欧洲央行耐心地持续购债等政策措施似乎正在奏效。

以下是布雷纳德演讲的全文。

 

Transitions in the Outlook and Monetary Policy

经济前景和货币政策

Governor Lael Brainard

布雷纳德

 

The economy appears to be at a transition. We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time. Assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path.

经济发展目前已经进入转型期。美国正接近充分就业,通胀率正逐渐升向我们的目标,外部增长根基也更为稳健,前景所面临的风险接近平衡,正如一段时间以来的情况一样。假设上述进展持续,那么尽快撤除额外宽松举措,继续逐步升息或许是适宜的。

 

As normalization of the federal funds rate gets further under way, monetary policy too is approaching a transition, prompting increased focus on the balance sheet. How the federal funds rate and the balance sheet should be adjusted individually and in combination depends on the degree to which they are substitutes, their relative precision, and the degree to which their effects on the economy are well understood.

随着美国联邦基金利率的正常化的进一步推进,货币政策也正处于过渡时期,这就使得人们更加重视资产负债表。该如何调整联邦基金利率和资产负债表,取决于其被取代的程度和相对精度,以及其对经济影响的程度。

 

Let me start with the outlook and then turn to policy.

现在,我先谈谈前景,接着再谈谈政策。

 

 

Progress at Home and Abroad

美国及世界其他国家的发展情况

 

Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad was considerable. Between the middle of 2014 and 2016, a combination of notable fragilities and risks in large foreign economies, elevated sensitivity of the dollar to policy divergence, a sharp decline in oil prices, and financial markets' heightened sensitivity to these downside risks slowed progress in the U.S. economy and the adjustment of monetary policy to an extent few had anticipated. After being an important constraint in the past few years, the external environment currently appears more benign than it has been for some time, even though risks remain.

过去的几个季度,国内外的通货膨胀水平和经济活动均有所改善,而此前一段时间,国内经济活动曾受国外因素的严重影响。在2014年年中期到2016年,别国大型经济体暴露出的脆弱性和风险,刺激了美元对政策分歧的敏感性,引起油价急剧下降,导致金融市场对这些下行风险的敏感度增加,并拖慢了美国经济,货币政策的调整也达到了史无前例的水平。过去几年,外部因素对经济发展的掣肘颇大,而现在则温和得多,尽管风险犹存。

 

Near-term risks to the United States from abroad appear to have diminished. Recoveries are gaining traction in China, Europe, and Japan in part reflecting greater confidence in their respective policy environments. The improvement in the global risk outlook was also helped by the continued economic progress and the gradual pace of monetary policy adjustment in the United States last year.

外部对美国的短期风险似乎已经减弱。步入复苏轨道的中国、欧洲和日本经济正在增长,这些经济体对各自的政策环境抱有极大的信心。全球风险前景的改善也得益于去年美国经济持续增长和货币政策调整逐步放缓。

 

In recent quarters, market participants appear more confident that China has the will and capacity to maintain its exchange rate regime, while achieving its growth targets, although there is a tension with high credit growth that will eventually need to be addressed. Early last year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which had averaged nearly 8 percent over the previous five years, was only a little above an annual rate of 5 percent in the first quarter, according to official data, and many observers believe that actual growth was weaker. Relatively large discrete declines in the renminbi against the dollar and a surge in private-sector investment outflows led to considerable volatility in foreign exchange markets and financial markets more broadly.

近几个季度,市场参与者似乎更加相信中国有意愿也有能力维持现有的汇率制度并实现增长目标,尽管中国最终需要解决其信贷增长紧张的问题。据官方数据显示,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率,在过去五年平均接近8%,而去年初第一季度的GDP仅稍微高于5%。许多观察者认为其实际增长较弱。人民币对美元的大幅下降和私营部门投资外流的激增,导致外汇市场和金融市场较大的波动。

In response, Chinese authorities boosted the supply of credit, ramped up fiscal stimulus, initiated new communications regarding the exchange rate, and clamped down on capital outflows. These actions appear to have stabilized growth and calmed fears of financial instability stemming from a sudden large devaluation in the renminbi. GDP growth rebounded to an average annual pace of over 7 percent in the final three quarters of the year. The exchange value of the renminbi has remained relatively constant against the central bank's designated basket of currencies, and it has depreciated against the dollar at a more gradual pace. Capital outflows, while still significant, have moderated.

因此,中国当局加大信贷供应力度,加大财政刺激措施,开拓新的汇率通道并遏制资金外流。当人民币突然大幅贬值时,以上举措也似乎维持了经济增长的稳定,并平息了对金融动荡的担忧。去年的后三个季度GDP增长率回升至平均每年7%以上的速度。人民币兑中央银行指定的一篮子货币依然保持相对稳定,其兑美元的贬值逐渐放缓。资本外流仍然巨大,但已有所缓和。

 

In Europe, the recovery has proven to be increasingly resilient. Monetary policy has continued to provide crucial support. As a result, several challenges--including referendums in the United Kingdom and Italy and liquidity and capital stresses faced by German and Italian banks--have so far been navigated without significant damage to growth, financial stability, or inflation expectations. Fiscal policy has ceased being a drag on demand growth and, in some cases, has turned moderately expansionary. Overall euro-area GDP increased at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent last year, sufficiently in excess of potential output growth to bring the unemployment rate down nearly 1 percentage point. Despite some instances of heightened volatility, financial markets have functioned reasonably well, and risk spreads have stayed contained, although uncertainty about upcoming elections has likely led to some increase in French and Italian sovereign spreads in recent months. Fears of disinflation also appear to have abated: Measures of inflation compensation based on 5-to-10-year-ahead inflation swaps, which fell to 1-1/4 percent in the middle of last year, have recently moved up to 1-3/4 percent.

在欧洲,越来越多的人开始看好复苏态势。货币政策继续提供着重要的支持。英国和意大利的公民投票、德国和意大利银行面临的流动性和资本压力——这些挑战都在平稳过渡中,并没有对增长、金融稳定或通货膨胀预期造成重大损失。财政政策已不再是需求增长的拖累,在某些情况下还得到了适度的发展。去年欧元区国民生产总值年均增长率为1-3/4%,大大超过了潜在产出增长率,使失业率下降近1个百分点。尽管有些情况波动较大,但金融市场运作情况良好,风险蔓延受控;尽管近期选举的不确定性可能导致法国和意大利主权利差在近几个月有所增加。对通货紧缩的担忧似乎也有所减弱:基于5到10年期通货膨胀互换的通货膨胀补偿,在去年中期下降到1-1/4%,而最近已经上升到1-3/4%。

 

Activity in Japan has also picked up recently, with GDP increasing 1-1/2 percent last year--noticeably above the estimated rate of potential growth--and the unemployment rate declining 1/4 percentage point to 3 percent, as monetary policy has remained supportive.

日本的经济活动最近也有所回升,去年国内生产总值增长了1-1/2%,明显高于潜在增长率。因其货币政策利好,失业率下降了1/4个百分点至3%。

 

Of course, concerns regarding the medium to longer run remain. In China, the price of near-term stability has been an increase in leverage, particularly in the corporate sector. China's overall debt-GDP ratio is elevated for an emerging market economy, especially considering that Chinese growth is likely to slow noticeably in coming years. In Japan, core consumer price inflation is close to zero--well below the central bank's 2 percent target--and scope for additional monetary policy accommodation is limited, leaving the economy vulnerable to adverse demand shocks. In the euro area, growth and inflation may remain low for some time, which could pose challenges for banks with low capital or high amounts of nonperforming loans and for highly-indebted sovereigns. Political events in Europe also raise some uncertainty. Going forward, it will be important to continue to monitor these and other foreign developments carefully.

当然,中长期发展的担忧依然存在。中国短期的杠杆率一直在上升,特别是企业。作为新兴市场经济体,中国的债务与国内生产总值的比例总体上升,特别是考虑到中国的增长在未来几年可能会显著下滑。日本核心消费物价通胀接近于零,远低于日本央行2%的目标,而额外的货币宽松政策调控范围有限,使经济容易受到不利的需求冲击。在欧元区,经济增长和通货膨胀率可能会持续一段时间,这可能会对资本不足和有大量不良贷款的银行、高负债主权国家构成挑战。欧洲一系列的政治事件也引发了不确定性。展望未来,继续密切监测以上情况和其他国外事态发展,显得至关重要。

 

Here at home, the economy is at a transition. The past few months have seen continued progress in the labor market. Monthly gains in payroll employment have maintained a pace sufficient to continue eroding labor market slack, and wage growth appears to be moving higher on balance. Compensation per hour in the business sector, the most comprehensive measure of wages, increased at a 3 percent pace the past two years, noticeably above the pace earlier in the recovery.

美国经济正值转型阶段。近几个月,劳动力市场持续发展。薪资收入势头保持良好,缓解了劳动力市场的疲软。总体来说工资增长看似走高。作为最全面的工资衡量标准——商业部门的时薪,在过去两年以3%的速度增长,明显高于复苏初期的水平。

 

We appear to be closing in on full employment. The unemployment rate--after remaining relatively flat from the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016--fell 1/4 percentage point last quarter to 4-3/4 percent. In addition, the labor force participation rate has been about flat, on net, over the past 2-1/2 years, which indicates considerable ongoing cyclical improvement, given the declining demographic trend. Even so, there may be some room for further improvement. The prime-age employment-to-population ratio remains depressed relative to pre-crisis levels; the share of employees working part time who would prefer full-time work remains elevated; and some measures of wage growth, such as the employment cost index, have increased relatively little in recent years.

美国的就业几近充分水平。失业率在2015年第三季度至2016年第三季度表现相对平稳,却在上个季度下降了1/4个百分点至4-3/4%。此外,净劳动力参与率在过去2-1/2年间大幅平稳,因人口趋势下降,显示出相当可观的持续的周期性的改善潜力。即便如此,仍有改善余地。年轻就业人口比例相对于危机前的水平仍过低;越来越多的兼职工作的员工希望获得全职工作;近年来,就业成本指数等一些工资增长措施几近于无。

 

Most recently, we are also seeing welcome signs of progress on the second leg of our dual mandate after a protracted period of shortfalls from the FOMC target of 2 percent inflation. Recent months have seen a step-up in longer-run inflation compensation, which had dropped to worrisomely low levels last year raising concerns about a softening of inflation expectations to the downside. Both market- and some survey-based measures of inflation expectations remain somewhat low, but there has been some movement in the right direction in the past few months. Inflation has moved up lately as the effect of past increases in the dollar and declines in energy prices have faded. The 12-month change in headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices was 1.9 percent in January, although this partly reflects a temporary boost from energy prices. Core PCE inflation--which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is a good gauge of future inflation--has also increased. At 1.7 percent in January, the 12-month change is 0.1 percentage point higher than a year ago. Still, core inflation has been below our 2 percent target for almost all of the past eight years, and further progress is necessary to reach and sustain our symmetric inflation goal.

美国联邦公开市场委员会制定了2%的通货膨胀的目标,但很长一段时间该目标都没有达到。然而最近,进展喜人。近几个月来,长期的通货膨胀补贴有所上升,其在去年的回落引发对通胀预期下滑的担忧。市场和一些基于调查的通货膨胀预期措施仍显不足,但过去几个月来一直朝着正确的方向发展。随着之前美元升值和能源价格下滑的影响,通货膨胀近期已经上升。1月份,个人消费支出(PCE)12个月的涨幅为1.9%,尽管这部分反映了受能源价格的影响而暂时上涨。核心PCE通货膨胀上升(剔除动荡的食品和能源价格的核心PCE能很好地衡量未来通货膨胀率)。1月份为1.7%,12个月的变化比去年同期高0.1个百分点。然而,过去八年来,核心通货膨胀率几乎都低于我们的2%的目标,为了达到和维持对称的通货膨胀目标,必须要有进一步的进展。

 

Recent indicators of aggregate spending suggest we will continue to edge closer to our goals in the months ahead. Consumption growth has been encouraging, supported by continued job gains, rising wealth, and greater confidence. Business investment changed little the past two years, but there are currently signs of renewed growth. The contrast with the situation a year ago is sharp. Then, risk spreads on corporate bonds had risen noticeably--often a precursor to downturns--measures of business sentiment were relatively depressed, and corporate profits had declined over 10 percent. In recent quarters, the environment has become more favorable. Risk spreads have moved back down to more normal levels, business sentiment has rebounded, economic profits look to have turned up, and new orders for capital goods are moving higher. The partial rebound in oil prices has also given a boost to drilling activity. However, some crosscurrents could weigh on aggregate demand this year. The recent increases in longer-term interest rates could restrain housing activity as well as other interest-sensitive areas of demand, and some further pickup in the dollar could weigh on net exports and business investment.

最近的总支出指标表明,我们将在未来几个月内继续接近我们的目标。消费增长令人鼓舞,得益于持续的就业增长、财富的增长和更大的信心。过去两年的商业投资变化不大,但现在有增长的迹象,与一年前的情况形成鲜明对比。过去,公司债券的风险蔓延明显上升(通常是经济衰退的前兆);商业情绪措施相对消极,企业利润下降了10%以上。而近几季,环境变得利好:风险蔓延已回落至正常水平,业务情绪转好,经济利润回升,资本货物的新订单上涨。油价的部分反弹也促进了钻井活动。然而,一些逆流可能会对今年的总需求造成影响。最近长期利率的上涨,可能会抑制房地产发展以及其他对利益敏感的需求,而美元的进一步上涨可能会影响净出口和商业投资。

 

Recent months have seen an increase in the upside risks to domestic demand. Sentiment has increased along with equity prices, which are up around 10 percent since October. Increased optimism could lead to faster growth in consumption and business investment, although the spending data, thus far, do not suggest a noticeable acceleration. Some of the increase in sentiment and changes in asset prices could be tied to expectations of more expansive fiscal policy, another upside risk. In addition, the progress that we have made over the past year, with the economy closer to meeting full employment and inflation objectives, has contributed to the favorable shift in the balance of risks. The increase in upside risks to domestic demand and the diminution of foreign risks together suggest that risks to the outlook are more balanced today than they had been for the preceding two years.

近几个月来,国内需求的上行风险有所上升,情绪随着股票价格上涨,自10月以来上涨了10%左右。乐观情绪的上扬可能会导致消费和商业投资增长较快,尽管迄今为止,消费数据并没有显著提升。一些投资情绪增加和资产价格变动可能与更广泛的财政政策的预期相关,这更广泛的财政政策则是另一个风险上行。此外,过去一年我们取得的进展,随着经济更贴近充分就业和通货膨胀目标,促使风险平衡的有利转变。国内需求上行风险的上升和外来风险的下降都表明今天我们面临的风险比过去两年更加平稳。

 

Nonetheless, the neutral real rate of interest--or the level of the real federal funds rate that is consistent with output growing close to its potential rate with full employment and stable inflation--is expected to remain low both in the near term and in the longer run, and inflation is only slowly recovering from a protracted period of low levels. The nominal neutral interest rate--which adjusts the real neutral rate for the level of inflation--is likely to remain below its historical average even once it reaches its new longer-run normal level.

The lower rate environment means there will be less room to cut the federal funds rate, so that if the economy experiences adverse shocks similar in severity and frequency to those in the past the likelihood of returning to and operating near the effective lower bound will remain elevated relative to historical experience. Prudent risk management suggests that policy should take into account the asymmetry in risks posed by the greater likelihood of the economy being at the effective lower bound, where conventional policy is constrained.

尽管如此,中立的实际利率预期在短期和长期以内保持较低水平,通货膨胀只得从持续的低水平中慢慢恢复。中立的实际利率,抑或联邦基金的实际利率,与产出增长一致,达到其潜在利率水平,届时就业充分、通货膨胀稳定。名义中立利率即使达到新的长期正常水平后,也很有可能保持在历史平均水平以下。名义中立利率可以根据通货膨胀水平来调整实际中立利率。较低的利率环境意味着联邦基金利率的下降空间将会减少,因此,如果经济体遇到与过去相似的严重程度和频率的不利冲击,根据历史经验,那么其可能回归较历史水平更高的有效下限并在此水平上继续经营。谨慎的风险管理表明,政策应考虑到,当经济体处于该有效下限水平时经营,因其传统政策受到限制,会引发的更大的风险的不对称性。

 

What about the Balance Sheet?

那资产负债表怎么样?

 

Given the progress we have seen and the positive momentum in the incoming data, continued gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate. But unlike in previous tightening cycles, the Federal Open Market Committee currently has two tools to remove accommodation: the balance sheet as well as the federal funds rate.

鉴于我们看到的数据显示的积极势头,继续逐步取消宽松政策可能是适当的。但与以前的紧缩周期不同,联邦公开市场委员会目前有两个工具可以用来取消宽松政策,即资产负债表和联邦基金利率。

 

In December 2015, the Committee indicated that it would continue to reinvest principal payments until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is "well under way."2 The decision to rely solely on the federal funds rate to remove accommodation initially until normalization is well under way serves an important purpose, in my view.3 With asymmetry in the scope for conventional monetary policy to respond to shocks, there is a benefit to enabling the federal funds rate to rise more quickly than would be possible with a shrinking balance sheet and sooner reach a level that allows for significant reductions if economic conditions deteriorate.4

2015年12月,委员会表示,它将继续重新投资本金,直至联邦基金利率水平正常化为止。我认为,仅靠联邦基金利率来开始消除宽松政策直至正常化这个决定起着重要的作用.由于传统货币政策应对冲击的反应范围不对称,联邦基金利率的上升速度比提升萎缩的资产负债表来得更快。如果经济状况恶化,其也能很快实行大幅度下降。

 

Even so, recognizing that the median of the Committee projections places the long-run value of the federal funds rate around 3 percent--a very low level by historical standards--some could judge normalization to be well under way before too long. Thus, monetary policy too may be approaching a transition.

即使如此,委员会预测的联邦基金利率长期价值的中位数达到3%左右,即历史超低水平。有些人便可判断其早就达到正常化水平。因此,货币政策也可能正在接近过渡阶段。

 

Once the short-term rate is comfortably distant from its effective lower bound, there are broadly two types of policy strategies that could be contemplated. Many central banks around the world may contemplate similar choices in the coming years, while the Bank of Japan has already grappled with these issues in the past.5 One type of "complementarity" strategy might actively deploy the balance sheet as an independent second tool, complementary to the short-term rate. Under this strategy, both tools would be actively used to help achieve the Committee's goals. This strategy would seek to take advantage of the ways in which the balance sheet might affect certain aspects of the economy or financial markets differently than the short-term rate. Any differences in effects might derive from the fact that the balance sheet more directly, though not necessarily more precisely, affects term premiums on longer-term securities, while the short-term rate more directly affects money-market rates.

短期利率一旦远离有效下限,就可以考虑两种类型的政策策略。全球的许多中央银行可能会在未来几年考虑类似的选择,而日本央行此前已经遇到了这类问题。一种“互补性”策略可能会积极部署资产负债表作为独立的第二个工具,以补充短期利率。在这一战略下,这两种工具将积极地用于帮助实现委员会的目标。这一策略将力图利用资产负债表比与短期利率对经济或金融市场造成的不同影响。其影响差异表现在资产负债表上,虽然不一定更准确地,更直接是影响长期证券的期限溢价,而短期利率更直接影响货币市场利率。

 

Although it may be tempting, in theory, to operate with the balance sheet as a complementary, additional tool to the federal funds rate, we have virtually no experience with how such an approach would work in practice away from the effective lower bound. For that reason, one might instead prefer a "subordination" strategy that would prioritize the federal funds rate as the sole active tool away from the effective lower bound, effectively subordinating the balance sheet. Once federal funds normalization meets the test of being well under way, triggering an end to the current reinvestment policy, the balance sheet would be set on autopilot, shrinking in a gradual, predictable way until a "new normal" has been reached, and then increasing in line with trend increases in the demand for currency thereafter.6 Under this strategy, the balance sheet might be used as an active tool only if adverse shocks push the economy back to the effective lower bound.

虽然听起来不错,但从理论上说,将资产负债表作为联邦基金利率的补充工具,我们几乎没有经验,这种做法在实践中将远离有效下限。因此,人们可能会倾向于采用“从属”策略,将联邦基金利率作为唯一远离有效下限的有效工具,从而有效地从属于资产负债表。一旦联邦基金正常化通过考验,引发目前的再投资政策的结束,资产负债表将自动进入预设的逐步缩减模式,直至达到新常态水平,然后随着货币需求的增长趋势而增加。根据这一策略,资产负债表只有在不利冲击促使经济回到有效下限的情况下才能被用作积极的工具。

 

 

The case for the subordination strategy is straightforward and compelling. This strategy recognizes that the two policy tools are broadly similar in the ways they affect the economy by indirectly changing the level of interest rates used to finance purchases by households and businesses. These interest rate changes also have effects on asset prices, and thereby on household wealth, as well as on the exchange value of the dollar and, thereby, on net exports and core import prices.7 However, relative to balance sheet policies, the influence of the short-term rate is far better understood and extensively tested: There have been several decades and many business cycles over which to measure and analyze how the federal funds rate affects financial markets and real activity. In contrast, experience using the balance sheet as an active tool has been very limited and largely confined to a highly unusual period around the Global Financial Crisis, when short-term interest rates were constrained by the zero lower bound. Predictability, parsimony, precision, and clarity of communications all would seem to argue in favor of focusing policy on a single active tool that is most familiar. In short, it makes sense to focus policy on the tool whose effects are better understood by both policymakers and the public in circumstances where the tools are largely substitutes for one another.

从属策略的案例是直接和引人注目的。这一策略认识到,两种政策工具在通过间接改变家庭和企业融资购买的利率的水平以影响经济的方式大致相同。这些利率变化也对资产价格产生影响,从而影响到家庭财富,以及美元的兑换价值,从而影响净出口和核心进口价格。然而,相对于资产负债表政策,短期利率的影响能得到更好的理解和广泛的测试,因过去几十年和多次商业周期已衡量和分析联邦基金利率是如何影响金融市场和实际经济活动的。相比之下,使用资产负债表作为积极工具的经验非常有限,并且主要限于全球金融危机期间等非比寻常的时期。当时短期利率受到下限为零的制约。沟通的可预测性、简约性、精确性和清晰度似乎都赞同将政策重点放在最熟悉的单一活跃工具上。简而言之,把政策重点放在政策制定者和公众都能接受的工具上是有道理的,而这些工具在很大程度上能取代彼此。

 

Even with this subordination strategy, however, there may be limited circumstances in which the balance sheet might be employed in a manner that is supportive of the short-term rate. Most obviously, during the period when the balance sheet is running down, if the economy encounters adverse shocks, it may be appropriate to commence the reinvestment of principal payments again in order to preserve conventional policy space if the federal funds rate were to drop below some threshold level, perhaps similar to the "well under way" threshold.

然而,即使是这种从属策略,也可能在有限的情况下,可能以支持短期利率的方式利用资产负债表。最明显的是,在资产负债表下行的时期,如果经济遭受不利的冲击、联邦基金利率再走低,便可启动再投资本金,以保持传统的政策空间,保持在类似适当的阈值水平。

 

More broadly, although the two tools can achieve roughly similar effects, they are different, and we cannot rule out that there may be special circumstances in which these differences may be particularly valuable. In particular, these differences may be an important consideration in circumstances when the transmission of changes in the short-term rate to long-term rates and other financial market variables and the real economy is impeded. In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate. Some observers believe that such signaling was an important contributor to the effect of the balance sheet on the economy during and after the Global Financial Crisis.8 Thus, the subordination strategy will likely be appropriate in most circumstances, but we cannot completely rule out special circumstances in which the complementary use of both tools may prove compelling.

更广泛地说,虽然这两种工具可以实现大致相似的效果,但它们是不同的,我们不能排除这些差异在特殊情况下有其各自特别的价值。特别是在短期利率至长期利率的变动、其他金融市场变量和实体经济受阻的情况下,这些差异可能是一个重要的考虑因素。除了直接影响长期利率外,资产负债表的变化可能有助于加强与短期利率相关的政策沟通。一些观察家认为,这种信号是,全球金融危机期间和之后,资产负债表对经济有重要的影响。因此,在大多数情况下,从属策略可能是适当的,但我们不能完全排除特殊情况这两个工具的互补使用可能会适得其反。

 

Assuming that a subordination strategy is adopted, and the balance sheet is set to shrink passively and predictably once reinvestment ceases or is phased out, there is some uncertainty around the size of the balance sheet when it returns to normal, which the Committee has described as "no larger than necessary for the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy."

假设采用从属策略,资产负债表被设定为一旦再次投资停止或被淘汰就会按预期消极地收缩,则在资产负债表恢复正常时,其规模存在一些不确定性,委员会将其描述为“恰如其分地促进财政政策的高效和有效的执行。”

 

There are good reasons to expect a normalized balance sheet to be considerably smaller than its current size but larger than its pre-crisis level. Most obviously, trend growth in the demand for currency gradually pushes up the size of the balance sheet over time, but there are also other reasons to expect the post-crisis new normal to be larger than pre-crisis levels. The structural demand for reserves may be considerably larger now than prior to the financial crisis because of a number of changes, including new regulations that favor safe liquid assets and changes in financial institutions' attitudes toward risk.9 If the demand curve for reserve balances has shifted out, then a greater supply of reserves will be needed to attain a given interest rate target. Moreover, the supply of reserves will need to be set far enough above the structural level of demand to accommodate unexpected shocks to the demand and supply of reserves. To accomplish this, the Committee could choose to implement policy by adjusting the supply of reserves to offset such shocks. Or, the Committee could decide to maintain the current floor system, in which a buffer of reserves, sufficient to accommodate any sizable shocks to reserves demand and supply, is maintained, thereby obviating the need for high-frequency adjustments to the supply of reserves. The Committee's normalization principles suggest that any buffer would be the minimum amount needed to efficiently and effectively implement policy.10

有充分的理由,以预计一个标准化的资产负债表,其比当前的规模要小得多,但比危机前的规模大。最明显的是,货币需求的趋势增长随着时间的推移逐渐推高了资产负债表的规模,但也有其他原因,预计危机后的新常态将大于危机前的水平。由于一些变化,现在的储备结构性需求可能比金融危机前的要大得多,包括有利于安全流动资产的新规定和金融机构对风险态度的变化。如果储备余额的需求曲线有移出,那么需要更多的储备供应才能达到一个给定的利率目标。此外,储备的供应需要远远高于结构性需求水平,以应对储备的需求和供应会遭受的意外冲击。为此,委员会可以选择适当的政策,通过调整储备金供应来抵消这种冲击。或者,委员会可以决定维持目前的做法,其保有足够储备金以作缓冲,以应对任何储备需求和供应量会遭受的巨大冲击,从而避免了对储备金供应进行高频调整。委员会的规范化原则表明,任何缓冲将是高效和有效实施政策所需的最低限度。

 

Because of changes in structural and short-term factors since the crisis, it is difficult to know with any precision how low reserves can be allowed to drop while still maintaining effective interest rate control. Thus, as the balance sheet gradually declines, it will be important to carefully monitor money markets for indications that any further reduction in the supply of reserves will begin to put upward pressure on money market rates. At that point, the amount of reserves will likely be close to the minimum amount necessary to satisfy demand at the target rate.11

鉴于危机以来的结构性和短期性因素的变化莫测,很难准确地把握储备的下降幅度,并同时能保持对实际利率控制。因此,随着资产负债表逐渐下降,仔细监测货币市场的迹象表明,储备供应的进一步下调,将开始对货币市场利率施加压力。在这一点上,储备金量可能接近为满足目标利率需求所需的最低金额。

 

Conclusion

结论

 

To conclude, recent developments suggest that the macro economy may be at a transition. With full employment within reach, signs of progress on our inflation mandate, and a favorable shift in the balance of risks at home and abroad, it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to continue gradually removing monetary accommodation. As the federal funds rate continues to move higher toward its expected longer-run level, a transition in balance sheet policy will also be warranted. These transitions in the economy and monetary policy are positive reflections of the fact that the economy is gradually drawing closer to our policy goals. How the Committee should adjust the size and composition of the balance sheet to accomplish its goals and what level the balance sheet should be in normal times are important subjects that I look forward to discussing with my colleagues.

总而言之,最近的事态发展表明,宏观经济可能正进入转型期。在充分就业的情况下,我们的通货膨胀任务取得了进展,国内外风险平衡均有利转变,因此,委员会可能会继续逐步取消货币宽松政策。随着联邦基金利率继续向预期的较长期水平上升,资产负债表政策的转型也凸显必要。经济和货币政策的这些转变,反映了经济发展正积极地逐渐接近我们的政策目标。委员会要如何调整资产负债表的规模及组成来实现目标,正常时期内资产负债表的水平该如何设定,这都是我期待与同事们进一步讨论的重要议题。

 

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