【双语】A Banker's View of the “Belt and Road” Initiative（2nd Batch）
《中国外汇》：在“一带一路”建设过程中，有一些项目由于种种原因未能按计划推进。您认为，这其中的主要原因是什么？会对金融机构带来怎样的影响？
Q: Some projects implemented under the “Belt and Road” Initiative have failed to move ahead. What were the main reasons and what impact will this have on the financial institutions involved?
周慕冰：有些项目由于种种原因未能按计划推进，这个情况农行在办理业务过程中也遇到过。出现这种情况的原因有很多，包括政治因素、文化因素、环境因素以及与当地民众沟通不足，等等。从金融的角度，我感觉一些项目可能是遇到了融资困难。一方面，“一带一路”项目绝大多数是发展中国家的基础设施建设项目，建设和运营周期较长，投资回报水平较低，地缘政治因素导致的不确定性又高，本身就很难找到合适的资金；另一方面，从国际经验看，国际基建项目融资中约60%来自包括银团贷款等银行信贷，其他主要依靠债市融资和政府出资，但“一带一路”沿线国家金融市场发展普遍比较落后，政府财政又相对较弱，导致融资存在缺口。
A: Some projects have not been able to proceed. ABC itself has encountered such setbacks. There are many reasons for this, including political factors, cultural factors, environmental factors, lack of public communication, as well as other reasons. I believe that some projects may be experiencing financing difficulties. On one hand, the vast majority of projects of the “Belt and Road” Initiative belong to the infrastructure sector of developing countries, which have a long construction periods with low rates of return on investment and high degrees of geopolitical uncertainties. That makes it difficult to obtain adequate funding. On the other hand, as can be seen from international experience, about 60% of the financing for international infrastructure projects comes from bank credits, including syndicated loans. The rest comes from debt financing and government investment. However, the financial markets in many of the countries participating in the “Belt and Road” Initiative generally are somewhat undeveloped and that leads to financing gaps.
对境内金融机构最大的影响是把握“一带一路”项目融资风险的难度要大大高于国内项目。因此在提供项目融资时特别谨慎，只有在确保建设项目的各个方面都不存在问题，且各个渠道的融资资金都能够如期足额到位时，才敢发放贷款。反过来，这也会影响项目的推进速度，这是由“一带一路”项目的特殊复杂性所决定的。
For domestic financial institutions, the key is to manage the project financing risks under the “Belt and Road” Initiative as these are much greater than those of domestic projects. Banks must be particularly cautious in this respect.
《中国外汇》：金融合作也是“一带一路”建设中的重要内容。农行在与“一带一路”沿线国家进行金融合作方面有哪些突破?
Q: Financial cooperation is an important component of the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Where has ABC seen progress in cooperation?
周慕冰：农行非常重视加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的金融合作，也取得了较好成效，主要体现在以下三个方面：
A: ABC has attached great importance to strengthening financial cooperation. It has achieved good results, and they have mainly been in the following areas:
一是积极创新“一带一路”和沿边金融机构的特色交流。农行在广西、云南、内蒙古、新疆等沿边省区设立了东盟跨境人民币业务中心、泛亚业务中心、对蒙跨境人民币业务中心等，通过搭建国际金融合作平台，便利与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易和投资。
The bank has undertaken business exchanges with financial institutions in the countries participating in the “Belt and Road” Initiative. It has also set up cross-border renminbi business centers in border regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The construction of international financial cooperation platforms has also help facilitate trade and investment under the strategic program.
二是拓展跨境人民币服务网络。2016年末，有27家境外银行以间接参与者身份加入农行人民币跨境支付系统，遍及亚、欧、非、美、大洋洲。其中“一带一路”沿线有9家银行，包括蒙古、巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、拉脱维亚等国家。为境外同业开立人民币结算账户超过270个，推动了人民币的跨境使用。
At the end of 2016, there were 27 overseas banks that had joined ABC in its renminbi cross-border payment system as indirect participants. This network has stretched across Asia, Europe, Africa, America and Oceania. Among the banks in this network were nine from countries participating in the “Belt and Road” program, including Mongolia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Latvia. There were more than 270 renminbi settlement accounts for overseas counterparts promoting cross-border use of renminbi.
三是不断深化、丰富与“一带一路”沿线国家的金融合作方式。2014年，我们与塔吉克斯坦农业投资银行签署了《农业领域合作协议》，开展项目融资、账户融资等信贷业务，并推进双边货币互换。2016年，我们为塔吉克斯坦成功举办两期财金高级管理人员研修班，有力推动了两国金融理念融合和业务产品对接。我们还正式启动了人民币兑索莫尼汇率挂牌交易，实现了中塔两国本币跨境结算，有效推进了人民币在中亚地区的使用。
The bank also continued to deepen financial cooperation with the participating countries. In 2014, ABC signed the Agreement on Agricultural Cooperation with the Tajikistan Agricultural Investment Bank to carry out credit operations such as project financing and account financing, and promote bilateral currency swaps. In 2016, ABC successfully held two senior financial management training courses for Tajikistan, which was a strong impetus for the integration of financial ideas and business products linking the two countries. ABC also began quoting a renminbi-somoni exchange rate to achieve cross-border settlement of the two national currencies and thereby promote the use of the renminbi in Central Asia.
《中国外汇》：我国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资增长迅猛，其中也有个别企业存在虚假投资，给跨境资金流动带来了一定影响。对此，银行应如何应对？
Q: In recent years, Chinese enterprises have stepped up their offshore investment, and this has been particularly obvious in countries participating in the “Belt and Road” program. However, some enterprises have pretended to make investments but instead have just used the program as a way to move capital offshore. In response foreign exchange authorities have tightened their efforts to supervise investments. In your opinion, how can macro prudential supervision of cross-border capital flows be managed better?
周慕冰：针对个别企业在对外投资过程中存在的虚假投资问题，相关管理部门已经出台了明确的管理办法，核心内容包括：建立跨境资本流动风险监测系统，丰富跨境资本流动宏观审慎管理工具箱，搭建微观跨境资本流动管理体系，强化境内/外、宏/微观政策协调等。我觉得这些政策非常必要也非常对路。就商业银行来说，关键是要在认真贯彻有关监管要求的基础上，做好以下三方面工作：
A: Foreign exchange management departments have issued clear management guidelines regarding the actions of some companies that have falsified evidence of foreign investment. Regulators have established a cross-border capital flow risk monitoring system, enriching the macro prudential toolbox for managing cross-border capital flows. They have also improved the management system for micro cross-border capital flows and strengthened domestic and foreign capabilities. For commercial banks, the key has been to follow these general guidelines.
一是发挥好银行作为外汇管理部门与市场主体间的桥梁作用。长期来看，国家推动资本项目可兑换的大方向不会变，但在当前跨境资金流动形势下，银行应树立大局意识，充分发挥银行作为监管部门与企业间的桥梁作用，有效传导外汇管理政策，合理引导客户预期，实现资金有序流出。
First, there is a need for banks to maximize their role as a bridge between foreign exchange management institutions and the market players. In the long term, the general direction of the country's effort to reach convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account will not change. However, under the current situation in cross-border capital flows, banks act as a link between regulators and enterprises, effective transmitting foreign exchange management policies and rationally guiding customer expectations to achieve an orderly outflow of funds.
二是加强客户业务的真实性、合规性调查。银行应该严格按照“展业三原则”，尽职审查客户资料，全面了解业务背景，确保客户申请办理业务背景真实、资金来源合法合规，确保境外投资项目经主管部门批准。
Banks also need to strictly review customer information and gain a thorough understanding of their customers to ensure that the information is accurate and that foreign investment projects have been approved by regulatory authorities.
三是完善业务处理系统，加大人员技能培训，为贯彻相关规定提供技术和人才保障。
The banks also need to step up staff training in order to ensure that relevant lending requirements are met.
《中国外汇》：当前世界经济增长乏力，投资和贸易低迷，“逆全球化”思潮涌动，不确定因素增多。您认为，在新的国际经济形势下，“一带一路”战略的推进有什么特殊意义？
Q: Global trade, investment and economic growth remain sluggish. The anti-globalization movement is gaining ground. Against this background, what significance do you see for the “Belt and Road” program? Can it help promote global economic development?
周慕冰：我觉得，在当前的国际经济形势下，继续推进“一带一路”战略至少有三个特殊意义：
A: I think that under the prevailing economic conditions, the “Belt and Road” Initiative has shown it can deliver a number of benefits.
第一，“一带一路”代表了对“逆全球化”说“不”的最强音，体现了中国的国际担当精神。在“逆全球化”成为一股潮流、保护主义来势汹汹、世界经济秩序面临颠覆的背景下，中国坚定不移地大力推进“一带一路”建设，是在捍卫人类创造的全球化成果，体现了一个大国在国际局势动荡以及前途不明时勇于承担维护世界秩序与稳定的责任担当。
The “Belt and Road” Initiative is a strong rebuttal to the anti-globalization movement and reflects China's willingness to shoulder its international responsibilities. In the face of an anti-globalization trend and more aggressive forms of protectionism, China is firmly and vigorously promoting greater economic cooperation in an effort to defend the fruits of globalization. China is bravely shouldering the responsibility of maintaining global stability in an era of turbulence and uncertainty.
第二，“一带一路”将推动全球化发展进入新阶段。过去几十年的全球化过程，现在之所以被很多人攻击和诟病，原因在于过去的全球化主要由发达国家的资本精英主导，让很大一部分人受到伤害。“一带一路”的理念是开放、包容、均衡、普惠，这将把更多的国家联系起来，实现共赢式增长。
In the past decades, globalization has been sharply criticized by many people, mainly because globalization in the past was dominated by the capital elites of the developed countries. This inflicted damage on the interests of large numbers of people. But the “Belt and Road” Initiative is an open, inclusive and balanced globalization. It is a globalization that benefits everyone and creates a win-win scenario that boosts global growth.
第三，“一带一路”国家将成为全球经济增长的主引擎。当前，世界经济仍处于国际金融危机之后的缓慢恢复阶段。1930年代大萧条的教训告诉我们，以邻为壑式的贸易保护主义，只会让世界经济陷入更长期的萧条陷阱。“一带一路”建设将推动更多的国家加快投资，促进贸易便利化和自由化，优化分工合作和产业链分工布局。这将为全球经济增长注入更多的正能量。
The “Belt and Road” Initiative ultimately will become an important driver of global economic growth. The world economy is still in the midst of a gradual recovery from the global financial crisis. As we learned from the Great Depression of the 1930s, protectionism exacerbates economic problems. The “Belt and Road” Initiative can be a successful deterrent to a repetition of that mistake. It will enable more countries to accelerate investment, promote liberalized trade and optimize the division of labor in the global industrial chain. This in turn will help spur global economic growth.
