Finance

Challenges Faced by Traditional Monetary Theory and China's Monetary...

来源: CHINA FOREX 2021 Issue 3 作者:Gao Zhanjun

Title:Challenges Faced by Traditional Monetary Theory and China's Monetary Policy Choice

Traditional monetary theory believes that too much money will accelerate economic growth and lead to inflation. As the famous monetarist Milton Friedman said: Inflation is and only a monetary phenomenon. It is the inevitable result of the increase in the quantity of money faster than the increase in output. In this theorythe key determinant of the amount of money is the monetary basethe sum of currency in circulation and deposits held by banks and other depository institutions in their accounts at the central bank.

Howeverthis theory is facing serious challenges: since the 2008 U.S. financial crisis and before the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020the Federal Reserve(the Fed)the U.S. central bankhas increased reserve depositsthe main part of the monetary basedramaticallybut broad money supply M1 and M2 have grown slowly. Not only has it failed to significantly increase consumption and inflationit has also made people worry about the risk of falling into deflation.

But in Chinathe transmission of monetary base to the broad money supply is still smoothand the connection between different measures of money supply and the real economy is still very strong. For this reasonso farthe required reserve ratio (RRR) policy is still one of the main tools of China's monetary policy.

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