The year of 2020 has been marked by great volatility in the global economy. Over the past few years，the world economy，confronted with rising unilateralism and protectionism，has been losing its growth momentum and vitality. At a roundtable discussion organized by China Forex，Zhang Ming，director and researcher at the Department of International Investment of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Academy of Social Sciences and Xie Yaxuan，chief macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities，shared their opinions on the Covid-19 pandemic. The conversation，which follows in edited form，was moderated by Zhong Wei，China Forex deputy editor.

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Zhong Wei: First，I'd like to welcome our two guests. The world economy in 2021 is expected to recover although there are still many uncertainties as a result of Covid-19. According to some international institutions，in 2021 global gross domestic product growth will exceed 4% in developed economies and 6% in emerging economies. This represents a V-shaped recovery compared to 2020. However，people are still concerned about the global economy，especially when they look at the circumstances as 2020 draws to a close. For example，will some economies be still struggling with the pandemic in 2021? Can the Covid-19 vaccines meet global demand and will they be affordable? Will US unilateralism continue and hamper the world's economic recovery? What do you see ahead for the global economy? What challenges might arise?

Zhang Ming: According to the latest forecast in the October 2020 World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)，global economic growth is projected at -4.4% in 2020，and a positive 5.2% in 2021. However，the IMF's high growth estimate for 2021 is based on the low baseline of 2020. In fact，global GDP in 2021 is assumed to be the same as that of 2019. At present，whether the global growth in 2021 can exceed 5% or not rests on a number of uncertainties. The first uncertainty is the pandemic，which still seems to be severe. The center of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted from developed countries to emerging economies such as India，which is likely to have more confirmed cases than the US by the end of 2020. Latin America is also suffering from the pandemic now. Thus，the key to growth of emerging economies rests with whether the vaccine is widely available. Another uncertainty is US trade policy after the American presidential election. If the United States intensifies its unilateralism and trade protectionism，the outlook for global trade in 2021 is not optimistic.