【双语】金融行业产能过剩了吗
过去一年多的时间里，“三去一降一补”成为宏观调控的主题。其中，去产能是重要内容。提到去产能，人们往往将其与治理企业的“小散乱差”联系在一起，而很少会想到金融行业。然而，一个不容忽视的问题是，中国的金融行业也一直面临去杠杆、去空转、去泡沫的持续压力。那么，金融行业有没有产能过剩的问题呢？金融业将来又将如何嬗变与转型？
In the past year or so，the main theme of macro-economic control has been the elimination of excess capacity as well as surplus inventories and elevated leveraging while reducing costs and strengthening disadvantaged parts of the country. When speaking of overcapacity，people tend to think of the manufacturing sector and rarely think of the financial industry. However，no one can ignore the fact that China's financial industry has also been facing challenges from excess leveraging and financial bubbles. So，is there a problem of overcapacity in the financial industry? If so，what does this mean for the development of the financial industry?
主持：钟伟，《中国外汇》副主编
嘉宾：温彬，中国民生银行首席研究员
张岸元，东兴证券首席经济学家
钟伟：欢迎两位参与本期的“圆桌”讨论。次贷危机以来，全球主要经济体的央行陆续采取了量化宽松措施；而现在，以美联储为首，各国央行则正在或准备告别量化宽松，走向加息与缩表。时至今日，金融自由化不再那么流行，金融业规模的持续扩张面临挑战。例如，次贷危机至今，美国商业银行的物理网点减少了大约5%，影子银行系统不断萎缩，金融从业人员不增反减。在两位看来，金融业是否存在产能过剩的问题？如果存在的话，产能过剩主要体现在哪些领域？
Zhong Wei: Welcome to our latest round table discussion. Since the subprime mortgage crisis，the central banks of the world's major economies have adopted quantitative easing measures. Now，with the Federal Reserve of the US taking the lead，major central banks are ready to bid farewell to quantitative easing，and are preparing to raise interest rates and shrink their balance sheets. Today，financial liberalization is no longer so popular，and the financial sector continues to face challenges. For example，since the subprime mortgage crisis，US commercial banks have reduced their physical networks by about 5%，the shadow banking system has been shrinking and the number of financial practitioners continues to decline. In your view，are there overcapacity problems in the financial sector? If so，where do you see such problems?
温彬：“产能过剩”通常用于形容生产性企业的产出能力大于市场需求。而产出与需求之间的关系是动态的、相对的平衡。金融行业是否也可以用“产能过剩”来界定尚值得商榷。为了适应互联网金融发展，金融业开始从过去依赖传统的物理网点转向线上和线下相结合，由此导致了物理网点的减少。另外，从包括新金融在内更广义的角度看，也没有足够的证据显示，金融从业人员在绝对减少。
Wen Bin: Overcapacity is usually used to describe a situation where the capacity of productive enterprises is greater than market demand. The relationship between output and demand is dynamic but with a relative balance. Whether we can use "overcapacity" to define the state of the financial sector is open to question. In order to adapt to developments in internet finance，the financial sector began to transform itself from the traditional physical network to a combination of online and offline operations. This led to a reduction in the number of physical outlets. In addition，there is not enough evidence to show that the number of financial practitioners is showing an absolute decline if we take into account new finance players.
信用是金融的核心。当前金融领域的主要问题是信用过度扩张。一是信用扩张速度远超过实体经济增速，导致金融业泡沫化。2007—2016年，美联储资产规模年均增长18.9%，商业银行总资产年均增长4.5%，M2年均增长6.7%；而同期，GDP年均增长仅为1.3%，即使考虑通货膨胀因素，仍然远低于信用扩张速度。我国同样如此。2007—2016年，央行资产规模年均增长8%，商业银行总资产年均增长17%，M2年均增长16%；而同期GDP年均增长为9%。
Credit is the core of finance. The main problem in the financial sector now is the excessive expansion of credit. First，the credit expansion rate far exceeds real economic growth，leading to financial bubbles. Between 2007 and 2016，the average annual growth rate of the Federal Reserve's assets was 18.9%，while total assets of commercial banks expanded by an average of 4.5% a year and the annual growth rate of M2 was 6.7%. Over the same period，the average annual GDP growth was only 1.3%，and even if we take inflation into consideration，it was still far below the rate of credit expansion. It is the same with China. From 2007 to 2016，the central bank's assets grew at an average annual rate of 8%，total commercial bank assets increased by 17%，the annual M2 growth rate was 16% and average annual GDP growth was 9%.
二是信用扩张推高全球资产价格，导致资产泡沫。股票方面，美国三大股票指数连创历史新高；债券方面，各国央行加息与缩表之前，低利率环境推动主要债券市场走强，债券价格处于历史高位；房地产方面，随着投机性资金的涌入，主要国家房价再度高企，很多国家已恢复至危机前水平，甚至出现了泡沫。
Second，credit expansion pushed up global asset prices，leading to asset bubbles. In stocks，the three major US stock indexes recorded a series of record highs，while in bonds，before major central banks had a chance to begin raising interest rates and shrink their balance sheets，the low interest rate environment promoted a strong bond market with bond prices at historic highs. In real estate，with the inflows of speculative funds，property prices in major countries were buoyant. In many countries prices had returned to pre-crisis levels，and in some economies bubbles were emerging.
张岸元：整体而言，金融要为实体经济服务，不为实体经济服务的金融活动就是过剩的金融活动。目前中国金融行业主要存在以下两大突出问题。一是中国金融业增加值占GDP比重过高。近年来，中国金融业增加值占GDP比重持续攀升。2016年，该占比达到8.35%，相比十年前2006年的4.54%大幅上升了3.81个百分点；2017年一季度，更进一步上升至9.98%，仅低于2015年“股灾”前第一季度的10.9%。而相比之下，2016年，美国金融业增加值占GDP之比为7.3%，相比金融危机前2006年的7.6%，下降了0.3个百分点；日本2015年的占比为4.44%，相比2006年的5.76%大幅下降1.32个百分点。横向比较，中国金融部门占比显然过高。
Zhang Anyuan: The financial sector should serve the real economy. Those financial activities that do not serve the real economy are where we find excess capacity. At present，China's financial industry has two key problems. First，the value added output of China's financial sector accounts for too high a proportion of GDP. In recent years，the proportion of China's GDP from the financial sector has continued to rise. In 2016，the proportion was 8.35%，up from 4.54% in 2006. In the first quarter of 2017，it increased further to 9.98%. That was only below the 10.9% recorded in the first quarter of 2015 – shortly before the stock market crash. In contrast，the financial sector in the US accounted for 7.3% of GDP in 2016，down 0.3 percentage point from the pre-financial crisis level of 2006. In Japan，it accounted for 4.44% in 2015，down 1.32 percentage points from 5.76% in 2006.
钟伟：从短期看，2015年之后，中国央行资产负债表的扩张速度明显放缓，但金融机构的资产负债表的扩张速度总体却高于央行。同时，中国金融业增加值对GDP的贡献已超过了房地产，且高于美国。随着影子银行的退潮，互联网金融的分化，在两位看来，中国金融机构是将继续扩张，还是有可能在资产负债、人员、网点、产品甚至组织架构等方面做出调整？
Zhong Wei: In the years since 2015，the expansion of the balance sheet of China's central bank has slowed，but the growth in the balance sheets of financial institutions has generally been faster than that of the central bank. At the same time，the contribution to China's GDP from the nation's financial industry has exceeded that of the key real estate sector，and it has topped the level of the United States. With the diminished importance of shadow banking and the challenges from internet finance，do you expect to see China's main financial institutions continuing to expand，or is it possible they will have to make adjustments to their assets and liabilities，as well as their products，personnel，the number of outlets and even their organizational structure?
温彬：近几年，我国金融机构以加杠杆模式推动资产规模快速增长。截至今年国银行业总资产已经达到万亿美元，超过欧洲、美国和日本。随着央行货币政策收紧以及金融监管的加强，今年一季度已经出现了银行业总资产规模的增速放缓。
Wen Bin: In recent years，China's financial institutions have made use of leverage to promote asset expansion. At the end of March of this year，the total assets of China's banking sector reached US$33 trillion，surpassing those of Europe，the United States and Japan. With a tightening of central bank monetary policy and the strengthening of financial supervision，the first quarter of this year has seen slower growth in the banking sector's total assets.
在金融去杠杆的大背景下，当前的银行业更加注重结构优化，在资产负债、网点、产品服务等方面采取了针对性举措，提高服务的质量和效益。比如针对经济发展中的短板，普惠金融、绿色金融、消费金融和科技金融等方面可能会成为未来结构性调整支持的重点。特别是随着技术进步，银行业会综合运用互联网、大数据、云计算等新科技、新理念，采用线上线下结合的策略，实现渠道的多元立体化。
In the context of financial deleveraging，the banking sector is more focused on structural optimization，using targeted measures in the areas of assets and liabilities，the number of outlets，types and number of products to improve the quality and efficiency of services. For instance，the efforts to assist the disadvantaged segments of the economy，such as financial inclusion，green finance，consumer finance and technology finance，may become the focus of future structural adjustments. In particular，with technological progress，the banking sector will make greater use of the internet，big data，cloud computing and other new technologies and new ideas. It will combine online and offline services to achieve multi-faceted business channels.
张岸元：中国金融部门需要经历一个与实体经济再平衡的过程。从中国实体经济当前的规模看，可能不需要如此庞大的金融部门为之服务，而不断下行的实体经济可能也无法满足持续积累的巨量金融资产参与收入分配的需求。中国金融业需要休养生息、放慢增速，重新与实体经济相匹配。这一过程与制造业去产能有共通之处，但不一定会出现金融机构的全面缩表、行业规模绝对缩减的局面。
Zhang Anyuan: China's financial sector needs to go through a process of rebalancing，much like the real economy. China's real economy may not need such a large financial sector to meet its needs. The steady decline in the growth of the real economy may not be able to meet the needs of the accumulation of huge financial assets in the distribution of incomes. China's financial sector needs to recuperate，slow down its pace of growth to coordinate with the real economy's growth. This process and the elimination of overcapacity in the manufacturing industry have much in common. This does not necessarily lead to a comprehensive shrinking of bank balance sheets or the absolute decline in industrial capacity.
钟伟：从监管看，金融自由化似乎逐渐被不断强化的监管所取代，包括对金融机构的穿透式监管，以及对金融机构资本监管要求的提高。这使监管套利行为受到抑制，跨境金融活动也在分化，全球的金融资产价格面临调整。两位认为，监管趋严有可能对金融产能造成何种影响？
Zhong Wei: Financial liberalization seems to be gradually replaced by strengthened regulation and increased capital requirements for financial institutions. This has led to reduced regulatory arbitrage. Cross-border financial activities are also diverging and global financial asset prices are facing adjustment. What impacts do you think that these ever-tighter regulations are likely to have on financial capacity?
温彬：今年以来，我国监管部门为落实“把防控金融风险放到更加重要的位置”的要求，相继出台了多项监管举措：央行将表外理财纳入广义信贷，银监会严格治理“三违反、三套利、四不当”等市场乱象，证监会也加强了对上市公司股权激励、重大资产重组及证券期货投资者适当性管理，保监会则加强了对万能险和保险机构股票投资行为的监管。监管举措利于促进金融回归服务实体经济的本质，防止金融过度创新。
Wen Bin: As of this year，China's regulatory authorities，as they give more attention to the prevention and control of financial risk，have rolled out a number of regulatory initiatives. The central bank，for example，will include off-balance-sheet wealth management as general credit，the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is imposing stricter punishment of illegal activities in the financial markets，and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has also tightened its regulations regarding the use of equity incentives by listed companies as well as major asset restructuring and the activities of investors in the securities and futures markets. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) has strengthened its regulation of universal insurance and stock investments by insurance institutions. These measures will help the financial sector return to the core task of serving the real economy and thereby preventing excessive financial innovation.
金融监管加强也引起了金融市场一定程度的波动，实体部门融资成本也有所上升。目前货币市场、债券市场波动性增强，市场利率持续走高，金融机构流动性风险和利率风险上升。对企业来说，发债成本不断攀升，融资渠道因银行收缩表外业务而受限，给下阶段的稳增长带来了压力。因此，强化金融监管既不能因噎废食，也不能期望毕其功于一役，把握好执行的力度和节奏至关重要。
Financial regulation has also led to a certain degree of volatility in the financial market，and financing costs have increased. At present，volatility in the money market and bond market is increasing，market interest rates continue to rise，and liquidity risks as well as interest rate risks are increasing. For enterprises，the cost of issuing bonds is mounting and financing channels remain limited due to banks shrinking their off-balance sheet business. This has made it more difficult to achieve steady economic growth. Therefore，it is important to strike a balance in strengthening regulation and executing financial supervision.
张岸元：监管趋严可能产生的影响非常复杂。一方面，强监管稳定了投资组合的价值。加大交易成本是本轮强监管的重要结果，这实际上起到了锁定资金，维持虚拟、稳定的资产价格的作用。但另一方面，强监管也使得金融机构面临新的去产能压力。金融机构的价值在于管理风险，没有风险、市场没有波动，资产管理等诸多业务也就丧失了存在的基础。管制下服贴的市场是监管的产物，但失去了价格发现和优化资源配置的功能，市场也就没有太大意义了。
Zhang Anyuan: The ever-more-severe regulatory trend may have a complex impact. On one hand，strong regulation stabilizes the value of portfolios. Increasing transaction costs are an important result of tighter supervision，and this has in fact played a role in locking in funds and maintaining stable asset prices. On the other hand，strong regulation also makes financial institutions face new pressures to eliminate overcapacity. The value of financial institutions lies in the management of risk. Without risk，the market does not fluctuate，or the asset management and many other businesses also lose their reason for existence. The supervised market is the product of supervision，which lacks price discovery and the optimization of resource allocation. Thus，the market will not have much value.
钟伟：从长期看，金融技术不断进步，人工智能异军突起，数字货币崭露头角。物理网点不断被新渠道和虚拟网点所取代，柜员和客户经理也可能被虚拟客服和智能投顾逐渐取代，钞票的设计和印制，甚至银行卡外包产业也受到数字货币革命的持续冲击。随着金融机构的智慧化不断取得进展，两位认为，技术进步是否会导致传统金融产能的过剩并催生新型金融服务？
Zhong Wei: In the long run，financial technology continues to make progress，artificial intelligence advances rapidly and online payments become more prevalent. Physical outlets continue to be replaced by new channels and virtual sites，tellers and account managers may also provide customer service online. Investment is conducted in the same fashion，banknote design and printing，and even bank card outsourcing has been affected by the digital currency revolution. Do you believe that technological progress will lead to the birth of new financial services and a surplus of traditional financial capacity?
温彬：金融行业历来是应用新技术、新理念的先行者，而新技术和新理念也催生了诸多新型金融服务：一是以移动互联网为核心的移动支付革命。2016年，我国移动支付交易158万亿元，同比增长45.6%，占当年非现金支付交易的4.3%。二是大数据和人工智能驱动智能理财革命。随着用户网上行为数据的指数化增长，以深度学习为核心的人工智能挖掘利用海量数据，将促进金融服务与产品的智能化、远程化、个性化和普惠化。科尔尼咨询预计，2015—2020年，人工智能投顾管理的资产规模年均增长将达到65%左右。面对新技术革命，银行业整体会加快转型升级步伐，传统的金融产品、服务、营销、风控、组织架构等，都将不断向智慧、便捷、高效、廉价的新型金融转型。
Wen Bin: The financial industry has always been a pioneer in adopting new technologies and new ideas. These give birth to new financial services. The mobile payment revolution，based on the mobile internet，has been at the center of this revolution. In 2016，the value of China's mobile payment transactions reached 158 trillion yuan，with a year-on-year increase of 45.6%，accounting for 4.3% of non-cash payment transactions in that same year. Big data and artificial intelligence have also been drivers of the smart financial revolution. With the exponential growth of data of the user behaviors on the internet，the artificial intelligence mining with the depth of learning as the core use massive data，this will promote financial services and products to become intelligent，remote，personalized and universal. Consulting firm A.T. Kearney estimates that by 2015 to 2020，the average annual growth rate of asset management with artificial intelligence will reach about 65%. In the face of the new technological revolution，the banking industry will accelerate its transformation and upgrading. Traditional financial products，services，marketing，risk control，organizational structure will continue to move towards a greater convenience，efficiency and lower costs.
张岸元：目前，我们较多看到的，还仅仅是“金融互联网化”对传统金融模式的影响。电子货币与数字货币有着本质的区别，真正的数字货币带来的冲击，几乎还未出现。
Zhang Anyuan: At present，what we mostly see is the impact of the "financial internet" on the traditional financial model. Electronic money and digital money are essentially different，and the real impact brought by digital money has barely appeared.
钟伟：面对全球央行的加息与缩表，以及中国的金融去杠杆，两位对既平稳推进金融产能去化，又坚守不爆发系统性风险底线有何大致判断？在传统金融去产能的同时，新型金融产能能否凭借创新而崛起？对此，两位又有哪些政策提醒和建议？
Zhong Wei: As major central banks raise interest rates and shrink their balance sheets，China is pushing ahead with financial deleveraging. What is the likelihood of systemic risk as we promote the steady reduction of financial overcapacity? In the traditional elimination of the financial overcapacity at the same time，will capacity in the new financial sector emerge as a result of innovation? In this regard，what warnings and what suggestions would you make?
温彬：综合经济结构、财政货币政策、信用杠杆等因素判断，我国目前金融风险总体可控。金融科技发展有其自身规律，金融转型离不开信用中介的本质。金融业转型升级是一个正在发生、持续进行的过程，不会一蹴而就。新型金融加快发展的同时，传统金融在相当长的时期内还有存在的必要。
Wen Bin: If we make a comprehensive analysis of China's economic structure as well as its fiscal and monetary policy，credit leveraging and other factors，the nation's financial risks are generally controllable. The development of financial technology has its own laws，and financial transformation is inseparable from the nature of credit intermediaries. The transformation and upgrading of the financial sector is a continuing process that will not be accomplished overnight. While new finance develops rapidly，the traditional financial sector is still playing its long term role.
为防范金融风险，建议去杠杆要掌握好力度与节奏，兼顾当前和长远，平衡宏观审慎和微观管理；必要时还可设置过渡期，防止节奏过快影响金融机构的经营，引发风险。建议进一步协调金融监管，加强金融行为监管，完善监管制度，规范金融创新。比如，可将同业存单纳入同业负债管理，确保委外保持在合理范围。为加快金融创新，建议调整、完善税收、考核等政策，支持金融科技的应用，发展投贷联动、场景金融等新型金融服务模式。
In order to guard against financial risks，it is recommended that we strike a balance in deleveraging，taking into account the current and long-term prospects，balancing macro-prudential goals and micro-management needs. If necessary，it can also set the transition period to prevent the negative impacts of the over-development of the financial institutions on the business with risks. It is proposed to further coordinate financial supervision，strengthen financial supervision，improve the regulatory system and standardize financial innovation. For example，interbank deposits can be included in the same industry debt management，to ensure that outsourcing is kept at reasonable levels. To speed up financial innovation，it is recommended that we improve taxation，assessment and other policies to support the application of financial technology，the development of investment loans，scene finance and other new financial services models.
张岸元：我国目前的监管围绕房、股、债、汇几大市场，覆盖了国内金融的主要领域，基本形成了闭环。中国作为全球最主要的金融市场之一，当前出现的局面是前所未有的。我认为，该局面会延续较长时间。一是短期内强监管不会转向，如果管控措施突然松绑，将带来无法控制的后果。二是即便金融监管体制改革落定，强监管局面也不会终止，在当局未确定金融与实体关系已实现匹配之前，强监管不会鸣金收兵。三是政策逆转需要较长的执行周期。至于金融创新，其出现是为了突破监管的限制，但并不是所有的监管都能催生创新。按照当前的监管态势，我并不认为短时期内金融创新有太大的机会。
Zhang Anyuan: China's current regulation of the housing，stock，debt and foreign exchange markets as well as the domestic financial sector is basically a closed loop. China is a leading global financial market，and its current situation is unprecedented. I believe this situation will continue for a long time. In the near term，this tough supervision will not change course and that will have uncontrollable consequences. Even if the financial regulatory system reform is settled，the strict regulatory environment will not be changed. Authorities will not cease their efforts until they are sure of a suitable relationship between the finance sector and the real economy. A policy reversal requires a longer period of implementation. As for financial innovation，its emergence is to break through regulatory restrictions，and not all regulation promotes innovation. In the current regulatory environment，I do not see that many near-term opportunities for financial innovation in the short term.
钟伟：温博士认为，与其说金融产能过剩不如说是信用过度扩张；岸元博士认为，中国金融业的膨胀，和美国等西方国家相比并不是新鲜事。两位都指出了资产价格高企的风险，都认为全球流动性趋于常态化和中国金融监管趋严并非权宜之计。温博士较为强调金融创新的重要性，而岸元博士则指出当下似乎不是金融创新的窗口期。人不能提着自己的头发离开地面，中国金融业也确实到了厘清功能定位、加速脱虚入实的转折点。
Zhong Wei: Dr. Wen believes that we are witnessing an expansion of credit rather than financial overcapacity. Dr. Zhang believes that the expansion of China's financial industry is nothing new when we consider the past developments in the United States and other Western countries. Both pointed out the risks of high asset prices，that the normalization of global liquidity and China's moves toward tighter financial regulation. Dr. Wen emphasizes the importance of financial innovation，and Dr. Zhang points out that at the moment it seems this is not the time for big strides in financial innovation. China's financial industry has indeed entered a stage where it needs to clarify its functions and positions，and speed up its efforts to aid the real economy.
