Expanding China’s Aggregate Demand

来源: 《CHINA FOREX》 2023 Issue 2 作者:ZHANG Bin

Inefficiency and structural distortions in the economy can be considered as chronic diseases,and reform aims to address these chronic issues through exploratory measures. The treatment process can be difficult,with significant uncertainties in outcomes. A successful reform often requires a combination of factors,such as timing,ideas,and the external environment. And historically there have been few successful cases. Insufficient aggregate demand is like a fever; a severe fever can lead to a Great Depression,while a persistent fever can result in prolonged economic downturn wit lingering consequences. The cause of the fever is not inefficiency,and reform policies cannot solve it. Countercyclical policies can effectively address the fever issue,with treatment not difficult and results more certain. Currently,there are many concerns about countercyclical policies in our country,which include misunderstandings and aftereffects caused by improper selection of countercyclical policy tools. Reforms to treat chronic diseases and countercyclical policies to address fever are not contradictory; treating chronic diseases can wait,but treating fever must be timely; otherwise,persistent fever will aggravate symptoms of chronic diseases or bring new complications.Insufficient Demand Can Cause Fatal Damage to the Economy

Economic difficulties do not always stem from inefficiency and structural problems,and reform is not a panacea. The purpose of reform is to improve efficiency. However,the reasons for economic downturns are not always due to inefficiency. The main cause of the global economic depression in the 1920s was insufficient demand,not inefficiency; the primary reason for the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis was insufficient demand,not inefficiency; and the main contradiction in the lost two decades of the Japanese economy was caused by insufficient demand,not inefficiency. Compared to the damage caused by difficulties in improving efficiency (supply-side improvement),the harm caused by insufficient demand cannot be underestimated. Severe insufficient demand can inflict fatal damage to a market economy. Reform is not a panacea for economic problems,and the solution to insufficient demand is not reform.

For economies that have not yet fully industrialized,the main contradictions often lie in inefficiency and insufficient supply,with inflation being a daily concern. For economies that have undergone full industrialization and significant productivity improvements,economic contradictions more frequently manifest themselves as spontaneous market demand shortages,and deflationary concerns become more common. Insufficient market demand not only results in economic downturns,difficulties in achieving full employment,and loss of resource allocation,but also exacerbates income distribution,especially for the low-income class,whose working hours and income are more sensitive to economic prosperity. Periods of insufficient demand and economic downturns often coincide with worsening income distribution and intensifying social conflicts. The Great Depression of the 1920s brought not only economic losses but also severe social unrest. In some cases,insufficient demand may be short-term,while in others,it may persist for extended periods,resulting in long-term consequences.

Severe insufficient demand threatens economic and social stability,leading to the emergence of macroeconomics. Macroeconomics based on aggregate demand management does not mention too much about reforms. John Maynard Keynes,the founder of macroeconomics,believed that insufficient demand was mainly due to investors' pessimistic expectations of the future,and that a decline in investment would further exacerbate insufficient demand through the multiplier effect,resulting in underutilization of resources and rising unemployment. Subsequent decades of macroeconomic research have found that insufficient demand may result from market failures in labor,goods,credit,and financial markets,particularly due to price stickiness. If prices remain sticky,the demand cannot be stimulated,causing the economy to stagnate at a lower level of output with resources not being fully utilized. After the financial crisis,research on insufficient demand has deepened,with a particular emphasis on the financial sector. If liquidity and asset transactions in the financial market experience significant problems,credit expansion will be hampered,leading to substantial declines in investment and severe shortfalls in demand.

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