Outlook for China's Economy – Roundtable Discussion
In the first half of 2018,China's economy underwent some profound changes. First,the macro economy continued to show steady growth and profits of state-owned enterprises hit a new high but there was slower growth in fixed asset investment and consumption. Second,financial deleveraging efforts encountered new challenges. There was a continuous slowdown in the growth of total social financing and M2 money supply while significant swings in the stock market and the currency were seen. Additionally,there were public concerns about new regulations on asset management. Third,external uncertainties continued to mount just as central banks accelerated the process of monetary policy normalization. However,major economies and emerging markets had to contend with President Trump's global policies. Fourth,steady and neutral monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy were used in tandem effectively. Reasonable liquidity in the financial market,and liquidity tension and strict regulatory supervision in the economy. Meanwhile,promising growth in fiscal revenue in the first half of the year has led to more controversies. Against this background,what is the likely trend for China's macro economy? Are policy adjustments needed now? These are key questions to be addressed in the following roundtable discussion.
Moderator: Zhong Wei,associate editor at China Forex
Panelists: Zhang Ming,chief economist at Ping An Securities,research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Deng Haiqing,associate dean of Research Antgroup.com,visiting professor of Renmin University of China