China's Economy and the 'New Cycle' Debate

来源: 《CHINA FOREX》2017年第3期 作者: Zhong Wei, Qiu Xiao

Since the beginning of 2017,China's economic data has improved,but economists have markedly different views on the durability of this upturn. Some see the stabilization of the global economy and China's supply side reforms as signaling something much brighter ahead. They see more innovation and new development models taking shape. They also see this as pointing to a new economic cycle in the near future. Other economists contend China's economy is still in a phase more accurately described as "darkness before the dawn." There is an inkling of a new cycle,but it has not been firmly established. More patience and further observation are necessary. Still others contend that without significant reform and more innovation,it is difficult for China's economy to enter into a new cycle. Thus the current judgment that China's economy has entered into a new cycle is groundless. So,is China's economy really entering into a new cycle? What are the characteristics of a new cycle and what kind of innovations and institutional vitality would be needed? What kinds of government support policies are needed?


Zhong Wei,deputy editor-in-chief of China Forex,leads the discussion with Qiu Xiaohua,chief economist of Minsheng Securities,and He Fan,professor of economics at HSBC Business School of Peking University,director of the Research Institute of the Maritime Silk-Road of Peking University.

Zhong Wei: From the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017,a number of China's economic indicators have showed an upward trend,contrary to some previous expectations. How do you view the Chinese economy at this point? What are the reasons for the improved macroeconomic data in the first half of this year? Is it mainly due to improved macro-control and regulation? Does it indicate that China's economy is gradually entering into a new stage or a new cycle?

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