China's Forex Market Finds a New Balance

来源: 《CHINA FOREX》2017年第3期 作者:Wang Chunying

China's capital outflows have eased significantly this year,and supply and demand on the domestic foreign exchange market have been more in balance.

China's foreign exchange reserves have also continued to rise this year. As of the end of July,China's foreign exchange reserves reached US$3.08 trillion,up US$70.2 billion from the end of 2016. Between February and July China posted six consecutive months of increases in its reserves.

The deficit from bank sales and settlements of foreign exchange on behalf of customers narrowed significantly over the January-July period. The deficit totaled US$109.3 billion over the seven months,down 47% from the same period a year ago. The monthly average deficit between February and April was US$12.2 billion,though the monthly average between May and July was US$17.9 billion. This was partly the result of heavier remittances of profits from foreign-funded enterprises and seasonal demand from individuals for foreign travel. It also compared with low January's US$19.2 billion. Considering other factors such as forwards and options,China¡¯s foreign exchange supply and demand has tended to be on a more balanced footing since February.

The payments and receipts from non-bank sources was somewhat more balanced. From January to July of 2017,the deficit from non-bank sources -- enterprises and individuals --  was US$106.2 billion,marking a year-on-year decrease of 47%. The average deficit in the first two months of the year was US$22.4 billion,down 17% from a year earlier. In January and February,there was an average US$4.6 billion monthly surplus of foreign exchange receipts and payments but between March and July,there was an average monthly deficit of US$6.3 billion.

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