Roundtable Discussion on China's High Property Prices

来源: CHINA FOREX 2016 Issue 4

Since 2011,property prices in major cities around the world have generally risen amid an unmistakable trend of expanding asset bubbles. At the beginning of 2014,the Chinese property market defied that global trend and slumped badly,and the downturn didn't stop until the end of that year. In 2016,however,property prices in China's first-tier cities have risen significantly. In early October,more than 20 municipal governments across the country issued tough regulatory measures to restrain surging property prices. Prices in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen and other cities have over the course of 2016 attracted great public attention,and there has been a growing chorus of questions about possible risks to the financial system. The following discussion attempts to examine those price movements and assess the future of the nation's property market.

Zhong Wei,deputy editor-in-chief of China Forex Magazine,speaks to Zhao Xiao,professor at the Institute of Economic Management at the University of Science and Technology of Beijing,and Shao Yu,chief economist of Orient Securities.

Zhong Wei: Distinguished guests,welcome to our Roundtable Discussion. As we have seen since 2011,prices of stocks,bonds and property have generally risen in developed countries,while prices in China have displayed great volatility. At the moment,property values have reached lofty levels. What changes have we seen over the last five years in property prices,including the important price-to-rent ratio in New York,London and other major cities? And what changes have we seen in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen over the same period? Where have the differences been?

Shao Yu: Property prices have climbed in a number of overseas markets,especially in key cities,and that has resulted in declines in the price-to-rent ratio. Rents in China's first-tier cities had risen steadily in recent years but over the last year there has been a decline in the price-to-rent ratio because rents were unable to keep up with the gains in property prices. That has meant that the main driver behind property investment has been the potential for price appreciation.

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