The following is an edited version of an address by Liu Shijin,former vice president of the Development Research Center of the State Council,at the China Finance Annual Forum in October.

China's economy has been stuck in a continuing downturn over the past six years after some three decades of rapid growth. The economy still seems to display signs of downward pressure. Opinions vary considerably on the causes of this situation as well as prospects for growth in the future.

There are three distinct schools of thought on this. One is that China - like other countries - has its economic ups and downs,and we are currently in an extended down period. An upturn can be expected at some point. But this fails to explain why the economy has been unable to bottom out.