In Search of a New Equilibrium: Insights and Strategies for Treasury
Changes in the global economy and unprecedented market volatility over the past few months have had a profound impact on companies and created significant challenges for treasurers. According to data from J.P. Morgan and Bloomberg,the U.S. dollar has climbed sharply against 90 per cent of the world's currencies while oil prices have slipped below US$30 a barrel - the lowest level in 12 years. This highlights the fragility of markets and their intricate linkages.Economic fundamentals are shifting,and the responses by corporates and investors to those changes continue to create volatility in areas ranging from commodity prices and currencies to interest rates.
While market developments will affect organizations differently based on their sector,location,and maturity,treasurers need to have a deep understanding of the key market themes shaping the external environment in which they operate,and use those insights to drive improvements in performance.
China's Growth Slowdown
According to IHS Global Insight,China is now close to being a US$11 trillion economy,fueled by the strong growth of its domestic sector. Its average nominal GDP growth was 14.3% from 2010 to 2014. Similar to how growth in the US in the 1990s drove expansion of the global economy,growth in China helped its neighbors and trading partners in the 2000s. In more recent years,however,slowing growth in China and decreasing fixed investments have had a significant impact on the global economy,which is the fundamental reason for market volatility around the world.