Key Market Factors in 2017 – Rate Hike Expectations, US Policy

来源: CHINA FOREX 2017 Issue 1 作者:Wai Kit So, Falco

As the first quarter of 2017 comes to a close,one of the focal points for global investors is the US stock market. From the US presidential election until mid-March when China Forex went to print,the Dow has been on a steep climb,setting a new milestone at nearly 21,170 points,for a gain of some 3600 points or 21% since election day. Similar advances were seen in the NASDAQ composite as well as the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The gains were not just in the US market as Germany's DAX,the UK's Footsie and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index all recorded significant advances. However,it was not just the extent of the climb that was so impressive. The lack of a real retracement has also been an eye-opener. Moreover,this steady climb by the equities market,contrary to the trend on the foreign exchange and commodities markets,clearly illustrates the difference in sentiment between the equities and the FX or commodities markets.

Post-Election Market Sentiment

Let's briefly review the situation shortly ahead of the US election before diving into current market conditions. Market sentiment was then driven by "uncertainty," resulting in an influx of funds into risk averse assets such as the Japanese yen and gold.

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