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It’s All in the Timing

来源: CHINAFOREX 2018 Issue 1 作者:Mu Zhiqian
As we move into 2018 we appear to have some crucial moments ahead of us.

In the course of development,some moments are more meaningful than others; a watershed event,a mission accomplished,or a transition from one stage to the next,such as when our quantitative goals are replaced by qualitative ones. All of these could be defined as crucial moments in time.

As we move into 2018 we appear to have some crucial moments ahead of us.

This year has special significance. It has been 40 years since China launched its opening-up policy in 1978. That set the stage for four decades of reforms that delivered unprecedented economic growth and dramatically raised living standards. Now we are trying to build on that solid foundation.

Last year,China faced a new set of challenges,including pressure from a slowing economy. This year,as the 13th Five-year Plan reaches a critical stage,whether the economy will make steady progress depends on our own skill and hard work. This year is also the first year after the critical 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,which set direction for policy makers. How we respond will determine our success or failure as we look ahead to the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 2019,the plans to turn China into a relatively well-off society in 2020 and the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2021.

New measures and achievements are needed each time we face these crucial junctures.

In terms of policy on the foreign exchange front,China will need to steadily promote trade and investment liberalization while ensuring that the financial sector serves the real economy. The nation must adapt to a new international trade environment that includes a growing role for e-commerce and new payment platforms.

Policy makers will need to promote capital account liberalization in a steady and orderly manner,and perfect the self-regulatory mechanism of the foreign exchange market. New foreign exchange products will need to be made available to ensure adequate investment hedging. There are a few important measures in the works,such as the planned Shanghai-London Stock Connect scheme and free ports. No doubt more will be added to the list.

Over the past three years,China experienced a series of challenges,including capital outflows,renminbi depreciation and a decline in foreign exchange reserves. Stability is the key and the destructive effects of financial risk need to be guarded against to prevent them from dealing a blow to the reform and opening up program. The three main tasks of economic work this year are risk prevention,poverty alleviation and sound management of our natural environment. And the establishment and integration of macro prudential and micro supervision are a regulatory priority for 2018. Timing is critical and now is not the time to shrink from these important tasks.