双语丨中国经济新周期来临了吗

中国经济新周期来临了吗

Has China’s Economy Entered a 'New Cycle' Yet?

进入2017年以来，人们对中国经济走势的判断出现了明显分歧。有学者认为，随着全球经济的回稳和中国供给侧改革的推进，创新发展模式和理念逐渐得到认同，中国经济逐渐走入了新平台、新周期；另有学者认为，中国经济尚处于“黎明前的黑暗”，新周期有隐约的光芒，但并未完全确立，还需要更多的耐心加以观察；但也有学者认为，没有重大的改革和出色的创新动能，中国经济就难以进入新周期，目前做出中国经济进入新周期的的判断显得苍白。那么，中国经济真地进入新周期了吗？新周期和旧周期相比又具有哪些特点，展现出哪些创新和体制活力？政策上又该如何加以支持？

Since the beginning of 2017，China's economic data has improved，but economists have markedly different views on the durability of this upturn. Some see the stabilization of the global economy and China's supply side reforms as signaling something much brighter ahead. They see more innovation and new development models taking shape. They also see this as pointing to a new economic cycle in the near future. Other economists contend China's economy is still in a phase more accurately described as "darkness before the dawn." There is an inkling of a new cycle，but it has not been firmly established. More patience and further observation are necessary. Still others contend that without significant reform and more innovation，it is difficult for China's economy to enter into a new cycle. Thus the current judgment that China's economy has entered into a new cycle is groundless. So，is China's economy really entering into a new cycle? What are the characteristics of a new cycle and what kind of innovations and institutional vitality would be needed? What kinds of government support policies are needed?

主持：钟伟博士，《中国外汇》副主编

嘉宾：邱晓华博士，民生证券首席经济学家

何帆博士，北京大学汇丰商学院经济学教授、海上丝路研究中心主任

Moderator: Dr. Zhong Wei，deputy editor-in-chief of China Forex

Panelists: Dr. Qiu Xiaohua，chief economist of Minsheng Securities

Dr. He Fan，professor of economics at HSBC Business School of Peking University，director of the Research Institute of the Maritime Silk-Road of Peking University

 

钟伟：2016年下半年至2017年上半年，中国经济多项指标呈现回暖向好态势，出乎此前部分观点的意料，也令许多人对中国经济的当下和未来充满期待。那么，中国经济当前究竟处于一个怎样的态势？上半年多项宏观经济数据的好转原因何在？是宏观调控的阶段性成效，还是预示着中国经济正在逐步进入新阶段或新周期？

Zhong Wei: From the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017，a number of China's economic indicators have showed an upward trend，contrary to some previous expectations. How do you view the Chinese economy at this point? What are the reasons for the improved macroeconomic data in the first half of this year? Is it mainly due to improved macro-control and regulation? Does it indicate that China's economy is gradually entering into a new stage or a new cycle?

邱晓华：2010年以来的这一轮中国经济下行周期正在接近尾声，新的周期正在向我们走来。甚至可以大胆地预测，新的周期将在2018年下半年开启，而且这个周期更多是新历史阶段性的周期。可以说，中国经济正站在一个新阶段的历史起点上，理由有如下几点。

Qiu Xiaohua: China's economic downturn，which began in 2010，is coming to an end and a new cycle is about to begin. I can boldly predict that the new cycle will start in the second half of 2018. This cycle marks a new era. It can be said that the Chinese economy is on the verge of this new era and the reasons are as follows:

一是当前先行指标出现趋稳向好的转变。从采购经理人指数到工业品出厂价格，从发电量到货运量，以及信贷的投放量，我们都可以看到这种变化趋势。这意味着，市场的景气度在逐步提升。二是中国经济运行的轨迹趋向平稳。去年前三季度的增速都是6.7%，四季度为6.8%；今年一季度为6.9%，二季度为6.9%，三季度我想也不会低于6.8%。三是可以看到新经济能量在放大，且在对冲旧经济减缓所带来的经济波动影响。高端制造业，以及各种新业态、新模式，都在以两位数的高增长率成长。四是可以看到世界经济正在复苏，中国今年以来的对外经济也有所向好，出口上半年实现了15%的增长。五是政策周期也在逐步微调，显示政策当局对中国经济短期波动的担忧度有所下降。六是新的政治周期已经开启，预计未来这一轮新的政治周期将把治理不作为、懒政、惰政等现象作为重点工作。政治周期与经济周期的配合，预示着中国经济发展的新周期正在向我们走来。

First，economic indicators show a change for the better. The improving trend can be seen in the indexes of purchasing managers，the ex-factory prices of industrial goods，power generation，freight volume and the volume of credit. This means that the economy is gradually recovering. Second，the economic trend is stable. The year-on-year growth rate in the first three quarters of last year was 6.7% and it ticked up to 6.8% in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of this year it was 6.9% and it maintained that pace in the second quarter. For the third quarter，growth is expected to be no less than 6.8%. Third，it can be seen that there is new economic momentum，and this is cushioning the effects of the economic slowdown of the past. High-end manufacturing as well as a variety of other new sectors are enjoying double-digit growth and supplying this new momentum. Fourth，it can be seen that the world economy is recovering. China's foreign trade this year has been good，with exports achieving growth of 15% in the first half of the year. Fifth，the policy cycle is also being fine-tuned，indicating that policy makers are less worried about China's short-term economic fluctuations. Sixth，a new political cycle has started. Political leaders will be cracking down on official misconduct，making effective governance their top priority. The convergence of the political cycle and the economic cycle suggests that China is approaching a new round of development.

何帆：上半年中国经济的数据比大家预期的要稍微高一些，主要是因为中国经济正处于一个回调的时间点。此轮回调大概是从去年下半年开始，并到今年上半年结束。导致回调的原因是存货投资的增加。其中，在去年国家大力推进“去产能”之后，煤炭、钢铁等原材料价格开始上涨，下游的企业为应对将来的成本压力要补充库存。这是存货投资增加的主要原因。

He Fan: China's economic performance in the first half of the year was slightly better than expected，mainly because the economy is readjusting. This readjustment probably started in the second half of last year and ended in the first half of this year. The reason for the readjustment was investment in restocking inventories. As a result of the efforts to cut overcapacity last year，prices of coal，steel and other raw materials began to rise. Downstream enterprises needed to boost their inventories in order to cushion themselves against future cost pressures. This is the main reason for the increase in inventory investments.

不过，此轮回调在上半年已经结束。这是因为：第一，主动的补库存不可能永远持续下去。第二，消费在短时间内很难起得来。第三，进出口方面，美国政府还在搞贸易保护主义，逆全球化思潮仍在发酵。第四，投资方面，政府投资刺激经济增长的力度也不会像原来那么大，且唯一值得期待的企业投资，也不会起来得太快。首先，不是所有企业的利润都在增加。现在盈利增加的那部分企业，基本上都是国有大中型的上游企业,而上游企业利润的增加，反而可能会侵蚀到下游企业的利润。现在PPI反弹的速度很快，但CPI并没有起来，也说明了这一点。目前企业利润的回升更多与供给侧改革相关。第五，即使是投资增加了，经济也不一定会实现高增长。人们往往会混淆固定资产投资和固定资产形成这两个概念，而GDP到底增长没增长，主要看固定资产形成。最近几年，固定资产投资和形成之间的差距在逐渐拉大。因此，整体来看，现在中国经济仍处在L型走势的底端，经济增长的新动能还未出现，新周期并没有到来。

However，this round of readjustment ended in the first half of this year. The supporting reasons are that first of all，the efforts to rebuild inventories cannot last forever. Second，consumption is unlikely to see much of an upturn in the near term. Third，in terms of imports and exports，the US government is still engaged in protectionism，and anti-globalization sentiment is strong. Fourth，in terms of investments，government stimulus spending will not match the extent seen in the past. Meanwhile，private investment，which remains promising，is not likely to accelerate too quickly. Profits，though improved，are not increasing for all businesses. Enterprises with better profits are basically large state-owned companies and medium-sized upstream enterprises. While the profits of upstream businesses increase，this may erode the profits of downstream companies. The present producer price index has rebounded smartly，but the consumer price index has not risen significantly. The current recovery in corporate profits is more related to supply-side reforms. Fifth，even if investment increases，the economy will not necessarily achieve high growth. People tend to confuse the concepts of fixed asset investment and fixed asset formation. The growth in the gross domestic product depends on the formation of fixed assets. In recent years，the gap between fixed asset investment and asset formation has gradually widened. Therefore，in general，China's economy is still at the bottom of an L-shaped trend. New economic growth momentum has not yet appeared，so a new cycle has not arrived at this point.

钟伟：新周期是相对旧周期而言的。那么，新、旧周期之间有什么显而易见的差异？中国经济当下呈现出怎样的特点？是否已体现出和以前的增长路径及模式的差异？

Zhong Wei: How would we distinguish a new cycle from the previous one?  Are there differences between the present growth pattern and the pattern of old? What are the chief characteristics of China's economy at present?

邱晓华：中国经济即将开启的新周期将不同于以往大干快干、粗放发展、破坏环境、损害民众福祉的旧模式，也有别于以往通过高投入、高消耗、高污染、高债务来追求高增长的旧周期。新周期将更多以提质增效、美化环境、增进民众福祉为重点，并将成为一个以创新发展、协调发展、绿色发展、开放发展、共享发展为主旋律的崭新周期。随着中国自身消费的不断升级，随着政府职能的不断转变，可以预期，新一轮的发展周期即将展现在我们面前。

Qiu Xiaohua: In this new cycle，China's economy will behave differently than in the past where the focus was on development at all cost，regardless of the damage to the environment or public well-being. It will be different in the sense that high input levels，high consumption levels，and high debt levels will not be used in pursuit of high growth. The new cycle will focus on quality of goods and services，improvement in the environment and enhancing the well-being of the people. Development will be driven by innovation，coordination，green policies，openness and sharing as the main theme. With the continuous upgrading of China's consumption patterns and the improved performance of government administration，a new development cycle can be anticipated.

何帆：从对传统的支撑经济增长的三驾马车的情况进行分析，第一，投资方面，由于资金供给受到限制，过去那样通过基建投资来拉动经济增长的情况将不会出现，基建投资的机会已经没有原来那么多了。过去地方投资主要是通过银行借款以及地方融资平台来融资，但现在中央对地方债务越来越重视，控制也越来越严格。此外，民间固定投资也没有特别的投资需求。第二，出口方面，在全球贸易保护主义抬头的情况下，出口难有大的提升。第三，消费方面，其一直比较稳定，且耐用品的消费相对饱和。虽然以后可能会逐渐升级换代，但也不会像以前从无到有那样增长得那么快。也就是说，当前缺少一个新量级的耐用品消费。未来关键要看服务业的供给侧改革能不能到位。目前，健康、医疗、养老这些需求都很大，但是供给跟不上，因此压制了对这部分服务品的消费。

He Fan: We need to look at the three pillars of support for economic growth. First，is investment，and here we see that due to limited funds，it is not possible to use infrastructure investment to the same extent as before in order to stimulate economic growth. In the past，local investment was financed mainly by bank borrowing and funds from local financing platforms. But the central government is paying much more attention to local debt now as it tries to maintain greater control over the spending of local governments. In addition，the appetite for fixed investment from the private sector is weak at the moment. The second economic pillar is exports，and here we face the problem of protection on a global scale. This makes it difficult for exports to see a big upturn in the near term. The third pillar is consumption，and this has been relatively stable，though the market for durable goods is relatively saturated. Although we may see a gradual improvement here，growth will not match the levels of the past when comparisons were with a very low base. The key to future growth is in supply side reform in the service sector. At present，health care and care for the elderly are areas of strong demand，but inadequate supply is holding back consumption of these services.

钟伟：人们总是愿意将周期和改革、周期和调控结合起来讨论。许多观点倾向于认为，只有深度的体制改革或者技术创新，才能带来新周期；同时认为，财政和货币政策等宏观调控措施通常不能导致经济的周期性变化。两位对此持何观点？当前的财政及货币政策动态是否与中国经济的周期性有关？

Zhong Wei: People like to talk of economic cycles and how they relate to reform as well as how economic cycles relate to macro-controls. Many economists contend that only deeper institutional reforms or technological innovation can bring about a new economic cycle. They say that macroeconomic regulation and control measures such as fiscal and monetary policies usually do not trigger cyclical changes in the economy. What is your view on this? Are fiscal and monetary policy dynamics related to the cyclical nature of China's economy?

邱晓华：之所以说中国经济正站在新周期的历史起点上，是因为有以下几点改革和创新的支持。第一，我们看到了十八大以来在整个政治领域里所确立起来的政治新生态，即要有规矩、有秩序，不能无规矩、无秩序。第二，我们看到了对外开放的创新：以“一带一路”倡议作为主要内容，以人民币国际化作为一条主线，以自贸区建设作为制度安排。第三，我们看到了新的技术革命正在兴起新的浪潮，即以智能化、互联网+、+互联网、生物经济等为引领的技术革命，正在开启新的征程。

Qiu Xiaohua: The argument that China's economy is at the starting point of a new cycle has support from reform and innovation. First，it can be seen that since the 18th Communist Party Congress (in 2012) there has been a new political environment. This new environment has stressed rules，regulations and order. Second，there is more innovation and a greater opening up to the outside world as seen with the "Belt and Road Initiative,"，the internationalization of the renminbi and the construction of free trade areas. Third，there is a new wave of technological developments such as in artificial intelligence，Internet+，bioeconomics and other breakthrough areas.

宏观调控政策方面，可以看到，政策取向也在逐步微调。今年政策取向经历了由适度中性转变为适度偏紧，再到适度中性的过程。其背后反映了决策者对短期经济波动的担忧度下降。我们不再担忧短期经济还会发生大的波动，而是关注中长期中国经济有哪些风险需要化解，比如债务风险、金融风险等。所以从政策取向微调的信号中，也看到了经济周期有可能会发生变化。

In terms of macro-control policies，the policy orientation is also gradually being fine-tuned. This year's policy orientation has undergone a shift from moderately neutral to moderately tight and then to moderately neutral，reflecting the concerns of policymakers about the short-term economic fluctuations. There is less concern about short-term economic fluctuations，and more concern about how to resolve long-term risks in the economy，such as debt risk and financial risk. So from the policy fine-tuning we can sense a possible change in the economic cycle.

何帆：如果不能真正释放出改革红利，经济新周期是无从谈起的。当前货币政策的表述变为“稳健”，主要强调的是我们要保持现在的趋势，不能突然收紧。现在很多企业本来就有“融资难”的问题，一旦收紧货币政策，经济可能会面临较大的下行压力。但是，货币当局也没有意愿进一步放宽货币政策。“中性”比“稳健”要稍温和一点，从“中性”转为“稳健”，意味着货币当局现在更强调稳。此外，“稳健”还有一个含义，就是不仅仅要关注宏观经济政策的稳，还要把防范金融风险落实到政策里。稳健的政策也是在提醒我们，要进一步警惕潜在的金融风险。

He Fan: If we cannot really obtain further reform dividends，there are no grounds to conclude we are on the cusp of a new economic cycle. Current monetary policy is "prudent," indicating that China wants to maintain its current trend，without resorting to a sudden tightening. Now many companies face difficulties in obtaining adequate financing. The tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to encounter greater downward pressure. However，monetary authorities have no intention of further relaxing monetary policy. "Neutral" is slightly more moderate than "prudent," and such changes in the wording of statements from monetary authorities suggest there is now more emphasis on stability. There is another meaning for "prudent" policies and that is the need for stability and the prevention of financial risks. Prudent policy suggests we need to be more vigilant about potential financial risks.

钟伟：对于中国经济而言，无论其是否进入新周期，未来都会面临许多内外部的风险与挑战。那么，中国经济接下来的走势将如何演绎？为了稳固上半年经济的向好趋势，或者为了使得新周期更为明朗化，两位认为，未来需要怎样的政策配套和市场激励？

Zhong Wei: Regardless of whether there is a new economic cycle，there will be many internal and external risks and challenges ahead for the economy. What do you see as the coming economic trends? What kinds of policy support do we need in the future to stabilize the economy or make the new economic cycle more visible?

邱晓华：中国要实现由经济大国向经济强国的跨越，既要注意应对推进经济转型升级进程中遇到的各种矛盾，也要注意应对来自更具不确定性的国际局势带来的种种挑战。就保持国内经济平稳发展而言，需要更加关注以下几点。

Qiu Xiaohua: In order to make the leap from a large economy to a real economic power，China needs to pay attention to a number of contradictions already encountered in the process of economic restructuring and upgrading. At the same time，it must face the challenges brought about by the uncertainties of the international situation. To maintain the steady development of the domestic economy，it needs to pay more attention to the following:

第一，强化三个“尊重”，即尊重市场规律、尊重企业家、尊重人才。一是要加快市场体系建设，完善市场机制，消除市场分割，打破行业垄断，净化市场环境；二是要进一步落实中央保护产权的政策要求，尽快将其纳入法治化轨道，尊重企业家的首创精神；三是要加快教育制度改革，大力培养创新型人才，同时尊重知识和创造，让人才可以分享知识和创造的成果。

First，China needs to strengthen the three "respects;" that is，the respect for the laws of the market，respect for entrepreneurs and respect for talent. First，it must speed up the building of the market system，improve market mechanisms，eliminate market segmentation and break up industrial monopolies. Second，the central government needs to further implement policies regarding the protection of property rights. This needs to be brought under the legal system more effectively as soon as possible. At the same time there must be respect for the entrepreneurial spirit. Third，reform of the education system needs to be accelerated so that we can vigorously cultivate innovative talent. That needs to be accompanied by respect for knowledge and creativity，so that those who have knowledge and are creative can share in the benefits of these attributes.

第二，贯彻“三个坚持”，即坚持经济建设为中心不动摇，坚持供给侧结构性改革不动摇，坚持对外开放不动摇。首先，当今世界，发展还是主流。中国不能落后，要引导社会各界把主要精力放在一心一意谋划发展上。为此，要提振发展信心、强化发展决心。应该围绕产业结构、企业结构、所有制结构、区域结构、城乡结构和收入分配结构等主要环节进行调整优化，深化各项改革，切实把全面改革的政策措施落到实处。要增强改革的紧迫感，为结构调整和优化提供可靠的体制机制保障。

Second，the government needs to implement the "three adherences," and by that I mean adhering in an unwavering manner to the principle of economic construction as the key objective while adhering to the goal of supply side structural reform and adhering to the principle of opening up the economy. In today's world，development is still the main objective. China cannot lag behind. It needs to guide people from all walks of life to work towards development. To this end，China must boost confidence in development and strengthen the national determination to work toward this goal. There should be agreement on the need for the upgrading of the industrial structure as well as corporate structure，ownership structure， urban and rural structures and income distribution. We need to effectively implement policies that speed comprehensive reform. To enhance the sense of urgency for reform，we need to provide a reliable institutional mechanism to protect structural adjustment and upgrading.

第三，挖掘“三大潜能”，即挖掘国内市场潜能、投资需求潜能及公共产品和服务潜能。就国内市场潜能来说，应大力发展以大健康和养老为主的“白色经济”，围绕满足女性、儿童消费需求的“红色经济”，以及围绕生态环保的“绿色经济”；同时，也要适当发展满足日益富裕起来的高收入群体金融服务需求的“金色经济”。在挖掘公共产品与服务潜能方面，应加大对国防、外交、教育、医疗、文化、社会保障、住房等特殊产品的投资力度，提升这些公共产品与服务的供给能力；同时，要大力推进公共产品与公共服务的均等化、透明化，消除歧视，杜绝暗箱操作。

Third，there is a need to tap the "three potentials," and by that I mean tapping the potential of the domestic market，tapping investment potential and tapping the potential for more public goods and services. In terms of the domestic market，we need to vigorously develop health care and old age care. At the same time，we must meet the consumption needs of women and children and ensure the protection of the environment. There is also a need for developing financial services as the number of affluent and high-income individuals expands. In tapping the potential for public goods and services，there is a need for greater investment in national defense，foreign affairs，education，health care，culture，social security and housing. We must also make the supply available on a more equitable basis by eliminating discrimination and increasing the transparency in supplying these goods and services.

何帆：中国经济当前还处在L型走势的底端。预计下半年的中国经济总体上将会比较平稳，因为目前还未看到一些迫在眉睫的风险。不过，今年经济运行可能“前高后低”，预计下半年经济下行的压力会有所加大。这主要是因为主动的补库存不可能永远持续下去。如果企业投资无法提升的话，稳定经济增速的压力还是比较大的。关键在于今后是否有新的改革举措推出。如果不能真正释放改革红利，可能会进一步拖累投资，影响经济增速。

He Fan: China's economy is still at the bottom of an L-shaped trend. It is expected that the economy will be relatively stable in the second half of the year，but there will be some risks which have not become apparent yet. This year's economic growth pattern may turn out to have a good start but a lower finish. Downward pressure on the economy is likely to increase in the second half of the year，and this is mainly because the inventory building I mentioned earlier cannot last forever. If private enterprises do not step up their investment，then the pressure on economic growth will be relatively severe. New reform initiatives in the future are critical. Without further reform dividends，we may see fresh declines in investment and this in turn will affect economic growth.

钟伟：谢谢两位的精彩讨论。中国经济是否已经进入新周期、新平台？对此，不少人仍然心存疑虑。我们应当看到，以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享为特点的新发展理念正在逐步确立，地产和金融不再是唱主角的产业，举债和发钞不再是宏观调控的主调。人们对中国经济的新周期、经济增长的新动能、改革开放的新局面，有着日益强烈的期盼。

Zhong Wei: Many people still have doubts about whether China's economy has really entered a new cycle. If we are in fact on the verge of this important change，we should be able to see the emergence of a new form of development characterized by innovation，coordination，green economy values，openness and sharing. Real estate and finance will no longer be the leading sectors. Raising debt and printing money will no longer be the mainstay of macroeconomic expansion. There are increasingly strong expectations from the public that China's economy may be on the verge of this new cycle. Hopes for new momentum in economic growth and for new reforms are mounting.