Export probably going down with new record

According to the Customs, in July export has realized 145.52 billion dollars or up 38.1 percent, import increased by 116.79 billion dollars or up 22.7 percent, with an amount of 28.73 billion dollars of trade surplus gained the very month.

Generally speaking, foreign trade has maintained faster growth this month, presented by another record of export total volume that outpacing the forecast. Following with domestic economic slowdown, the fall of import is just within the expectation. Experts say, both import and export is probably to go down later this year, in consideration of world economy stumbling away, and as import growth falling quicker than export, trade surplus could be retained again, thus causing less impact on economic development.

Two reasons present the rise of foreign trade in July: fist, time lag existed as the inventory reached the summit in second quarter at European and America’s market; second, tax rebate canceled for high consumption products, causing export growing faster in advance.

The fall of import is mainly due to domestic downturn and the decline of bulk commodities in the previous international market.

Analysts forecast export will continually go downward in the last quarter, as PMI, the export leading indicator, has remained staggering for over three months.