A Soft Landing for China's Economy

来源: CHINA FOREX 2016 Issue 3 作者:Lian Ping

China's economy has been confronted with a growing list of uncertainties - from the exchange rate to property prices to surplus capacity in key industries. The big issue is the pace of economic growth,and if the economy can make a "soft landing," other problems can be addressed more easily.

In assessing the state of the Chinese economy,we need to examine the economic cycle,the economy's structural framework and the external environment.

If we look at where we are in the economic cycle,we note that there was considerable downward pressure on the economy in 2014 and 2015. This was particularly evident in the important property sector,where investment surged 20% in 2013,but then saw growth slip to 10% in 2014 and only 1% in 2015,. This had a huge impact on investment overall and economic growth.

After the massive 4 trillion yuan stimulus program that was rolled out after the financial crisis,there was a huge huge rebound in China's economy,with growth reaching double digit levels in 2010. This was followed by the beginnings of a structural adjustment which resulted in less robust demand overall and surplus capacity,particularly in industries such as iron and steel,coal and cement.

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